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LOCATED: LAT. 9.5N…LONG. 40.1W
MOVEMENT: W 15 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
PRESSURE: 1012 MB / 29.88 IN.
The NHC in Miami has increased the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability to HIGH (70%) during the next 48 hours, and HIGH (80%) through day 5
Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates the disturbance is not quite as symmetrical as it was, however current satellite loop imagery indicates 93L maybe getting slowly better organized this evening. The disturbance had a battle with some northerly shear earlier today, however the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates an upper level anticyclone has become re-established over the system.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
Water Vapor loop imagery still indicates a possible slight intrusion of dry air at the mid levels.
Based on the current wind shear forecast update, the upper level anticyclone should travel in tandem with INVEST 93L, albeit it is forecast to wax and wane as far as providing outflow. For the most part, the disturbance should remain in an upper divergent pattern during the next 72 – 96 hours. Based on this, along with the system entering warmer sst’s…save anymore dry air intrusion, we should see a slow, gradual strengthening over the next 48 hours. Should convection re-initiate over or close enough to the center during this time, the NHC could upgrade the disturbance to a Tropical Depression. Based on analysis of forecast conditions for the next 72 – 96 hours, I cannot rule out Tropical Storm status sometime within the next 4 – 5 days. The 18Z Intensity Forecast Models hint at this, and I prefer the middle of the suite at the moment.
The disturbance continues to move toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 48-60 hours. Analysis of the PSU e-WALL Forecast Steering Layers page indicates this, and also indicates a turn more toward the WNW after 60 hours. The steering layers forecast maps have been consistent now over the past 3 days, and respond with the turn as the system, albeit shallow, approaches a weakness in the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, due to a deep layer trof forecast to hang over the U.S. East Coast for the next 3 -4 days. This is shown by the Dynamic Model Forecast track guidance, which has been consistent now for at least 10-12 runs. I am not ruling out a slight shift left in the short term, however the WNW turn should occur, and I prefer the TVCN/TVCC track at this time. I do not believe this will affect the GOMEX based on the forecast parameters analyzed at this time. However given the fact the steering layers forecasts go out to only 144 hours, and that accuracy diminishes greatly beyond 72 hours, residents along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard should monitor the progress of this system, until I can see how the ridge may evolve in a few days.
18Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
Residents of the Lesser and Greater Antilles should monitor the progress of this system closely for any significant changes, or in the event Tropical Storm Watches and/or warnings come to fruition.
I will have another update in the a.m. regarding this system.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)