TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L…EVENING UPDATE…ISSUED JUL. 29, 2014…6:00 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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LOCATED: LAT. 9.5N…LONG. 40.1W
MOVEMENT: W 15 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
PRESSURE: 1012 MB / 29.88 IN.

The NHC in Miami has increased the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability to HIGH (70%) during the next 48 hours, and HIGH (80%) through day 5

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates the disturbance is not quite as symmetrical as it was, however current satellite loop imagery indicates 93L maybe getting slowly better organized this evening.  The disturbance had a battle with some northerly shear earlier today, however the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates an upper level anticyclone has become re-established over the system.

CATL AND INVEST 93L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

Water Vapor loop imagery still indicates a possible slight intrusion of dry air at the mid levels.

WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

Based on the current wind shear forecast update, the upper level anticyclone should travel in tandem with INVEST 93L, albeit it is forecast to wax and wane as far as providing outflow.  For the most part, the disturbance should remain in an upper divergent pattern during the next 72 – 96 hours.  Based on this, along with the system entering warmer sst’s…save anymore dry air intrusion, we should see a slow, gradual strengthening over the next 48 hours.  Should convection re-initiate over or close enough to the center during this time, the NHC could upgrade the disturbance to a Tropical Depression.  Based on analysis of forecast conditions for the next 72 – 96 hours, I cannot rule out Tropical Storm status sometime within the next 4 – 5 days.  The 18Z Intensity Forecast Models hint at this, and I prefer the middle of the suite at the moment.

18Z INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
ATCF 93L INTENSITY

The disturbance continues to move toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 48-60 hours.  Analysis of the PSU e-WALL Forecast Steering Layers page indicates this, and also indicates a turn more toward the WNW after 60 hours.  The steering layers forecast maps have been consistent now over the past 3 days, and respond with the turn as the system, albeit shallow, approaches a weakness in the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, due to a deep layer trof forecast to hang over the U.S. East Coast for the next 3 -4 days.  This is shown by the Dynamic Model Forecast track guidance, which has been consistent now for at least 10-12 runs.  I am not ruling out a slight shift left in the short term, however the WNW turn should occur, and I prefer the TVCN/TVCC track at this time.  I do not believe this will affect the GOMEX based on the forecast parameters analyzed at this time.  However given the fact the steering layers forecasts go out to only 144 hours, and that accuracy diminishes greatly beyond 72 hours, residents along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard should monitor the progress of this system, until I can see how the ridge may evolve in a few days.

LAYER MEAN STEERING (WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CIRCLED)
wg8dlm1.WEAKNESS

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
93L DYNAMIC

Residents of the Lesser and Greater Antilles should monitor the progress of this system closely for any significant changes, or in the event Tropical Storm Watches and/or warnings come to fruition.

I will have another update in the a.m. regarding this system.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L…EVENING UPDATE…ISSUED JUL. 29, 2014…6:00 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. PortA BeachBums says:

    Thanks Storm for your input. We wish nothing but the best for those people in the path.
    Looks interesting but passive at this point, but you never know. We’ll keep our eyes on your site. It seems to be more productive than that other site we all know about. I get lost in the chatter that seldom has anything to do with what’s going on in this hemisphere!! Stay alert. We all appreciate what you’re doing.

  2. greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm prayers go out too the east coast.I am glad its not coming to the gulf.Maybe it might not bother the east coast.Thanks mr storm for keeping me inform.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I am happy this puppy doesn’t look like it wants to come see The City That Care Forgot, but this is just the beginning of the season and we haven’t even gotten through the CV part of it yet, so I will contain my enthusiasm. Prayers for the East Coast that this system decides to go fishing. God Bless you, Storm. You provide a needed service to a great many people.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like some guidance backed off on intensity. Please correct me if I’m wrong…but…doesn’t a slower Cyclonic rotation keep the system on a straighter path? Somewhat anyways.

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