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Good evening all!
The tropics remain quiet, and analysis of the Global Models do not indicate development during the next 7 – 10 days.
Satellite loop images show how quiet it is, and still shows some pretty dry conditions on water vapor imagery, over the Atlantic
An area of disturbed weather is approaching the west coast of Africa, and most of the convection which was associated with it has diminished.
EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, and forecast of the MJO, at the moment, I do not believe the wave getting ready to exit has much of a chance at survival. We just still have almost non existent instability over the Atlantic Basin…and without vertical instability…good luck on getting ANYTHING to develop. The MJO is covering a very good portion of the Pacific Basin at this time and appears to be slowly moving toward our basin.
I really don’t see anything over the next 7 days at least. Based on analysis of the current OLR forecast, the season may not begin picking up notably, until almost the second week of August.
SST Anomalies are still cooler than average over much of the MDR. Until the SAL quiets down, and until the NAO holds more negative for a while, vice the fluctuations on a weekly basis…SST’s anomalies are going to be slow to recover.
I will continue looking at things over the next week.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)