TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 25, 2014…7:50 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening all!

The tropics remain quiet, and analysis of the Global Models do not indicate development during the next 7 – 10 days.

Satellite loop images show how quiet it is, and still shows some pretty dry conditions on water vapor imagery, over the Atlantic

ATLANTIC BASIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

An area of disturbed weather is approaching the west coast of Africa, and most of the convection which was associated with it has diminished.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGERY

EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, and forecast of the MJO, at the moment, I do not believe the wave getting ready to exit has much of a chance at survival.  We just still have almost non existent instability over the Atlantic Basin…and without vertical instability…good luck on getting ANYTHING to develop.  The MJO is covering a very good portion of the Pacific Basin at this time and appears to be slowly moving toward our basin.

200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES (GREEN CONTOURS ARE UPWARD MOTION / RISING AIR)

ATLANTIC OCEAN VERTICAL INSTABILITY CHART

I really don’t see anything over the next 7 days at least.  Based on analysis of the current OLR forecast, the season may not begin picking up notably, until almost the second week of August.

CURRENT OLR FORECAST

SST Anomalies are still cooler than average over much of the MDR.  Until the SAL quiets down, and until the NAO holds more negative for a while, vice the fluctuations on a weekly basis…SST’s anomalies are going to be slow to recover.

CURRENT SST ANOMALIES

I will continue looking at things over the next week.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 25, 2014…7:50 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Good point/question, Monty.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m wondering if that West Africa convection was what knocked down that MD-83 out of the sky??

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. As you point out, just a quiet 2 weeks or so is likely ahead.

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