TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CATL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 20, 2014…6:15 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening everyone!

The Tropical Disturbance I have been monitoring in the CATL has persisted for the past 24 hours.  The NHC in Miami has included this wave in the Tropical Weather Outlook, with a LOW (10%) probability for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 48 hours through 5 days.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Satellite imagery loops indicate a better organization in cyclonic turning, with the strongest being at around 700 – 500 mb.  An earlier ASCAT pass did indicate some semi-cyclonic turning starting at the surface.  Albeit cyclonic action appears to have consolidated over the day, the lack of convective activity should preclude any further organization.  One of the main inhibiting factors is the presence of dry air north of the system.  The moisture field that was protecting this disturbance, has diminished since yesterday evening, allowing for some dry air to intrude.  The SAL is pretty much creating a negative environment for this system, along with the increased strength of the sub-tropical ridge providing stronger subsidence.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CATL WATER VAPOR LOOP

ASCAT IMAGE

SAL SATELLITE IMAGE
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The disturbance is currently moving westward at around 15 – 20 mph, and based on my analysis of the current Forecast Steering Layers maps, I expect this motion to continue for the next 48 – 54 hours.  Thereafter, a more WNW track should occur as the system encounters a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge.

Upper level winds are a little more conducive than they appeared yesterday evening, with an upper level anticyclone centered just NW of the area, with a noted increase in upper level divergence.  This condition in itself is fairly conducive for development, however with the lack of moisture for convection to develop, the only thing that may occur is a tightening in the cyclonic turning in the wind field.  Based on analysis of the 12Z run of the GFS and CMC wind shear forecast maps, upper level winds should remain somewhat favorable during the next 48 – 60 hours.  By 72 hours in the forecast period, upper level winds begin to switch to unfavorable.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR PRODUCT FROM CIMSS

Based on all the forecast parameters I have analyzed, this disturbance should hold together for the next 48 – 60 hours, however any organization or development of convection would be very slow to occur.  Based on the premise of the forecast track, and wind shear forecast, the disturbance should begin to diminish after about 72 hours…provided forecast conditions pan out with no improvement.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CATL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 20, 2014…6:15 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. LindyLou says:

    Thank you for all you do to help keep us safe. I’ve followed you for years (started before you had this site) and you have a better handle on things than the major weather sites. You explain what and why it is happening. I’m glad you take Pay Pal and I will donate as I am able using my hubby’s account. Thanks again for all you do.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Just as you said SAL wreaking havoc. It makes you wonder…all the dormant years we had…with the exception of 2004 for you guys in Florida…before 2005 and now the dormant years leading up to 2014. Hmmm…do you sense something major in the not too distant future???

  4. Mike Doll says:

    Just a little practice for ya!

  5. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm thanks for the update. Mr storm i hope that something don’t tick off mother nature. Mr storm do you think the switch on the tropics might be thrown in august?

    • Greg, I don’t believe the “switch” will be thrown, however, I would look for an increase,most likely starting the second week of Aug. What I mean by the switch is, I am not looking for a big Cape Verde season, having it become real busy with waves rolling off of Africa in continuous succession.

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