TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE…ISSUED JUL. 19, 2014…6:45 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening everyone!

I have been monitoring the CATL for the past 24 hours, along with some friends in Hurricane Talk on Facebook.  A quick analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicated a tropical wave located near 9.0N and covering 31W – 35W.  Some slight cyclonic turning was noted, over the broad area mentioned.  Current evening analysis of various satellite loop channels indicate this broad area of disturbed weather lies within the ITCZ, and may be becoming slowly better organized.  An improvement in organization and cyclonic turning has been noted since early morning.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

This area of disturbed weather is currently moving toward the west near 15 knots.  This mornings surface analysis from TAFB indicates a 1014 mb surface low associated with the wave.  The wave is being steered toward the west, as it lies on the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  Based on my analysis of the current run of the forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 48 – 60 hours.  Soon after, I expect more of a WNW motion to occur, as the wave comes closer to a weakness in the ridge.

CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING

Analysis of the current wind shear product indicates upper level winds are somewhat conducive for slow organization, and the current run of the wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates wind shear values MAY stay below 15 kts over the next 5-7 days, with zonal shear indicating a somewhat favorable environment.  The current wind shear climatology graph indicates that wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic is well below climatology.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST 72 HOURS

ATLANTIC BASIN WIND SHEAR CLIMATOLOGY

Current Water Vapor loop imagery indicates vast amounts of drier air to the north of the wave, however, the previous two waves have appeared to moisten the atmosphere ahead of this current wave, so it’s fairly protected being embedded within the ITCZ.

Based on all of these analyzed factors, and current forecast track thinking, I do believe we could see some further slow organization from this wave during the next 72 hours, and it could be designated our next INVEST for the season.  The NHC has not indicated this, however I believe any further persistence and organization may warrant the designation.

I will continue to monitor this disturbed weather during the next 72 hours, for any significant changes that could occur.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE…ISSUED JUL. 19, 2014…6:45 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like we could see a ramp up in activity…should wind shear values go the way you’re saying??

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