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Good evening everyone!
I have been monitoring the CATL for the past 24 hours, along with some friends in Hurricane Talk on Facebook. A quick analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicated a tropical wave located near 9.0N and covering 31W – 35W. Some slight cyclonic turning was noted, over the broad area mentioned. Current evening analysis of various satellite loop channels indicate this broad area of disturbed weather lies within the ITCZ, and may be becoming slowly better organized. An improvement in organization and cyclonic turning has been noted since early morning.
This area of disturbed weather is currently moving toward the west near 15 knots. This mornings surface analysis from TAFB indicates a 1014 mb surface low associated with the wave. The wave is being steered toward the west, as it lies on the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Based on my analysis of the current run of the forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 48 – 60 hours. Soon after, I expect more of a WNW motion to occur, as the wave comes closer to a weakness in the ridge.
Analysis of the current wind shear product indicates upper level winds are somewhat conducive for slow organization, and the current run of the wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates wind shear values MAY stay below 15 kts over the next 5-7 days, with zonal shear indicating a somewhat favorable environment. The current wind shear climatology graph indicates that wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic is well below climatology.
Current Water Vapor loop imagery indicates vast amounts of drier air to the north of the wave, however, the previous two waves have appeared to moisten the atmosphere ahead of this current wave, so it’s fairly protected being embedded within the ITCZ.
Based on all of these analyzed factors, and current forecast track thinking, I do believe we could see some further slow organization from this wave during the next 72 hours, and it could be designated our next INVEST for the season. The NHC has not indicated this, however I believe any further persistence and organization may warrant the designation.
I will continue to monitor this disturbed weather during the next 72 hours, for any significant changes that could occur.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)