TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 18, 2014…10:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Although it may look a “little” more active, the tropics remain quiet this morning.

ATLANTIC WIDE IR4 SATELLITE LOOP

WATER VAPOR LOOP

EAST COAST SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

A broad surface low is situated off the SEUS coast.  Albeit vorticity has increased over a very small area at the 925 mb level, upper level winds are not conducive for any development at this time, and are forecast to remain non conducive over the next 96 hours.

PSU E-WALL 925 MB VORTICITY

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde islands is displaying cyclonic rotation, however this is most likely up around the 700 mb level.  For giggles and grins, I am going to follow this across the Atlantic, however I am not expecting development, as for any type of development to even have a slim chance, the wave would have to be north to about 15N – 17N to take advantage of somewhat conducive upper level winds.  Upper level winds are forecast to remain marginally conducive for the next 4 – 5 days, however once again, given the lack of vertical instability, I do not foresee any heavy convection developing with this.  If you look at the SAL satellite image, you mainly see Stratocumulus clouds, which is indicative of a stable atmosphere.

EUMETSAT SATELLITE IMAGES (CLICK ON IMAGES TO ANIMATE)

SAL SATELLITE IMAGE

TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY

Analysis of the Global Models does not show any development during the next 7 –  10 days.  There may be a possibility we could see a slight increase in convective activity as we enter the middle of next week, through the end of the month, as the NAO is forecast to go into a negative phase, indicating a weakening of the subtropical ridge, which will reduce surface winds and strong evaporational cooling at the surface.   In other words, this would allow for heat to become concentrated over a smaller area, vice being spread out in the tropics.

NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST

NAO

The MJO Multivariate Index forecast now shows a shift in the models, indicating the MJO to enter Phase 2 vice Phase 1 as previously forecast.  In all honesty, I am not expecting an increase in any “real” activity until August, in fact which may be mid August if current conditions continue.  We will however, see if the forecast negative NAO allows for anything.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 18, 2014…10:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. greg goodman says:

    Thank you mr storm enjoy the quiet time.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah…it looks like the Slim and None brothers are taking center stage…again. LT hit it…MSY got plastered!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Looks like dellamom’s area got some big rain and storms today, in the New Orleans region.

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