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Good day everyone!
Although it may look a “little” more active, the tropics remain quiet this morning.
A broad surface low is situated off the SEUS coast. Albeit vorticity has increased over a very small area at the 925 mb level, upper level winds are not conducive for any development at this time, and are forecast to remain non conducive over the next 96 hours.
A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde islands is displaying cyclonic rotation, however this is most likely up around the 700 mb level. For giggles and grins, I am going to follow this across the Atlantic, however I am not expecting development, as for any type of development to even have a slim chance, the wave would have to be north to about 15N – 17N to take advantage of somewhat conducive upper level winds. Upper level winds are forecast to remain marginally conducive for the next 4 – 5 days, however once again, given the lack of vertical instability, I do not foresee any heavy convection developing with this. If you look at the SAL satellite image, you mainly see Stratocumulus clouds, which is indicative of a stable atmosphere.
Analysis of the Global Models does not show any development during the next 7 – 10 days. There may be a possibility we could see a slight increase in convective activity as we enter the middle of next week, through the end of the month, as the NAO is forecast to go into a negative phase, indicating a weakening of the subtropical ridge, which will reduce surface winds and strong evaporational cooling at the surface. In other words, this would allow for heat to become concentrated over a smaller area, vice being spread out in the tropics.
The MJO Multivariate Index forecast now shows a shift in the models, indicating the MJO to enter Phase 2 vice Phase 1 as previously forecast. In all honesty, I am not expecting an increase in any “real” activity until August, in fact which may be mid August if current conditions continue. We will however, see if the forecast negative NAO allows for anything.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)