TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL. 16, 2014…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone! 

Nothing really to speak of…however there is one little item of interest that may help break the boredom temporarily.

A Tropical Wave located near 8.0N – 9.0N…between 30W – 35W is moving toward the west at around 15 kts.

ATLANTIC WIDE IR4 SATELLITE LOOP

WATER VAPOR LOOP

CENTRAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of satellite loop imagery and the MIMIC TPW loop indicates cyclonic turning in the wind field, most likely confined at the moment near the 700 mb level.  Currently, this wave is located on the southern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.  Analysis of the current run of the forecast steering layers maps indicates this motion to continue during the next 4 – 5 days, at which time it should enter the extreme SE Caribbean at the very southern most portion of the Windward islands.

MIMIC TPW LOOP

CURRENT STEERING

Analysis of current and forecast wind shear products indicates upper level winds are marginally conducive for development over the MDR at the moment, and are forecast to remain marginal for the next 72 – 96 hours.  Once the wave enters the Caribbean, upper level winds become non conducive for development.  Again, this is based on the current wind shear forecast, which will be reanalyzed over the next few runs.

Analysis of the MIMIC TPW loop indicates some decent TPW surrounding the wave, and the wave can be noted near 30W.  Albeit some dry air surrounds the wave, the surroundings do not appear as dry as we have seen over this month.  Based on these parameters, I will continue to monitor this wave, although at the moment, I am not looking for development, although if conditions improve somewhat, we could see possible better organization of the area.

Elsewhere, the latest update on ENSO was published by the BOM (Bureau Of Meteorology, Australia).  The atmospheric teleconnection has not taken place as of yet, and the climate modeling is calling for a weaker El Nino phase.  In fact, up until October, we may remain in NEUTRAL with a warm bias Nino phase. This MAY have an effect on our season, in that if the atmospheric teleconnection does not occur until late fall, we may not see an increase in wind shear, or a substantial increase in shear, over the MDR when the season begins its ramp up.  Albeit with a cooler MDR, and lack of instability so far, I do not foresee too much of an increase in storm totals.  I am going to monitor this trend, and may revise my forecast slightly at the beginning of August.  The SOI is in the positive, which indicates an east to west wind pattern int he Equatorial Pacific

ENSO UPDATE INFORMATION
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#current=&tabs=Overview

NINO 3.4 CLIMATE MODEL FORECAST (AUGUST)

30 DAY RUNNING SOI

Other than this, Global Models do not indicate development during the next 7-10 days, albeit the GFS is showing a very weak closed low SSW of the Cape Verde islands near the end of the month,as well as both steering layers forecast maps showing a low in about 6 – 7 days near the same location.  Although at the moment I am having the tendency to doubt this, the area may have to be looked at, if the MJO forecast pans out.  The GFS side of the house is showing the MJO coming into PHASE 1, with some of the ECMWF now trending that way.  The OLR anomaly forecast also indicates upward vertical velocities for the Atlantic beginning the third and fourth weeks of this month.

GFS MJO FORECAST

ECMF

OLR ANOMALY FORECAST

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL. 16, 2014…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Hi Storm. I was wondering if the weather you have is any indication of possible Hurricanes being able to come your way in the future. Meaning, we have really had a wet summer this year in SETX. I know when we had the famous highs that one year, we couldn’t even get it rain….very dry that year and of course no storms came our way. Just wondering if the wet pattern could make a difference in that?

    • I believe there is some correlation to massive amounts of rainfall and that possibility. Surface pressure anomalies should, if I’m correct be lower, relatively speaking, as moist, humid air has the tendency to rise. But I guess we’ll find out. Basically in a way what I’m saying is, in order to get rain, you have to have rising air and condensation, which is indicative of lower pressures. So, it could be, if the pattern persists, something int he GOMEX COULD possibly head for lower pressures…although this is just a scientific guess on my part.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm–July is usually quiet, and we did have Arthur already , so I would not be surprised that we get nothing else till August.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Well…the MJO looks promising…unlike the future Nino. What about the WPAC!! They are getting pounded!!

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