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Good day everyone!
Nothing really to speak of…however there is one little item of interest that may help break the boredom temporarily.
A Tropical Wave located near 8.0N – 9.0N…between 30W – 35W is moving toward the west at around 15 kts.
Analysis of satellite loop imagery and the MIMIC TPW loop indicates cyclonic turning in the wind field, most likely confined at the moment near the 700 mb level. Currently, this wave is located on the southern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. Analysis of the current run of the forecast steering layers maps indicates this motion to continue during the next 4 – 5 days, at which time it should enter the extreme SE Caribbean at the very southern most portion of the Windward islands.
Analysis of current and forecast wind shear products indicates upper level winds are marginally conducive for development over the MDR at the moment, and are forecast to remain marginal for the next 72 – 96 hours. Once the wave enters the Caribbean, upper level winds become non conducive for development. Again, this is based on the current wind shear forecast, which will be reanalyzed over the next few runs.
Analysis of the MIMIC TPW loop indicates some decent TPW surrounding the wave, and the wave can be noted near 30W. Albeit some dry air surrounds the wave, the surroundings do not appear as dry as we have seen over this month. Based on these parameters, I will continue to monitor this wave, although at the moment, I am not looking for development, although if conditions improve somewhat, we could see possible better organization of the area.
Elsewhere, the latest update on ENSO was published by the BOM (Bureau Of Meteorology, Australia). The atmospheric teleconnection has not taken place as of yet, and the climate modeling is calling for a weaker El Nino phase. In fact, up until October, we may remain in NEUTRAL with a warm bias Nino phase. This MAY have an effect on our season, in that if the atmospheric teleconnection does not occur until late fall, we may not see an increase in wind shear, or a substantial increase in shear, over the MDR when the season begins its ramp up. Albeit with a cooler MDR, and lack of instability so far, I do not foresee too much of an increase in storm totals. I am going to monitor this trend, and may revise my forecast slightly at the beginning of August. The SOI is in the positive, which indicates an east to west wind pattern int he Equatorial Pacific
ENSO UPDATE INFORMATION
Other than this, Global Models do not indicate development during the next 7-10 days, albeit the GFS is showing a very weak closed low SSW of the Cape Verde islands near the end of the month,as well as both steering layers forecast maps showing a low in about 6 – 7 days near the same location. Although at the moment I am having the tendency to doubt this, the area may have to be looked at, if the MJO forecast pans out. The GFS side of the house is showing the MJO coming into PHASE 1, with some of the ECMWF now trending that way. The OLR anomaly forecast also indicates upward vertical velocities for the Atlantic beginning the third and fourth weeks of this month.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 – 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)