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Good day everyone!
Quiet again today in the Tropics.
Analysis of Global Models indicates none of the models show any type of development over the next 7 – 10 days. I am keeping tabs on an area that is crossing the Yucatan Peninsula area, as steering suggests it should wind up in the BOC…however upper level winds are forecast to remain non conducive for any development.
Looking at the grand scheme of things, I am not really looking for anything to develop over the next 10-14 days, especially in the Atlantic Basin…as long as the Azores / Bermuda high continues to sit at around 1028 – 1032 mb, it is going to be tough to have any increase in vertical instability, which is well below average over the Atlantic. Another SAL outbreak is noted coming off Africa. Models remain split on the forecast of the MJO, but there may be a possibility of an upward motion phase over the Atlantic near months end. I know this is short…but basically, it’s boring out there right now.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 – 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)