TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL. 14, 2014…ISSUED 12:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

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Good day everyone!

Quiet again today in the Tropics.

ATLANTIC WIDE IR4 SATELLITE LOOP

WATER VAPOR LOOP

Analysis of Global Models indicates none of the models show any type of development over the next 7 – 10 days.  I am keeping tabs on an area that is crossing the Yucatan Peninsula area, as steering suggests it should wind up in the BOC…however upper level winds are forecast to remain non conducive for any development.

Looking at the grand scheme of things, I am not really looking for anything to develop over the next 10-14 days, especially in the Atlantic Basin…as long as the Azores / Bermuda high continues to sit at around 1028 – 1032 mb, it is going to be tough to have any increase in vertical instability, which is well below average over the Atlantic.  Another SAL outbreak is noted coming off Africa.  Models remain split on the forecast of the MJO, but there may be a possibility of an upward motion phase over the Atlantic near months end.  I know this is short…but basically, it’s boring out there right now.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY

SAL SATELLITE VIEW

OLR ( Outgoing Longwave Radiation) ANOMALY FORECAST

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL. 14, 2014…ISSUED 12:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Texbam says:

    Thanks for the report Storm! I’m leaving out of Miami July 26th on a 7 day cruise to Bahamas, Grand Turk, St. Thomas and Puerto Rico. Do the models indicate I have anything to worry about during that time period for those areas?

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm thanks for the update. Mr storm if it’s still like this next month can we say still low numbers on storms out there?

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m sensing a return episode of the “Maytag Repairman Syndrome”. One good blast and that’s it…hello El Nino??

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