TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL 11, 2014…ISSUED 2:00 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

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Good day everyone!  Finally get to do some forecasting….off from work today through Monday.

Satellite imagery indicates the tropics remain quiet with a pretty stable atmosphere, noted by stratocumulus clods and dry air.

ATLANTIC WIDE IR4 SATELLITE LOOP

WATER VAPOR LOOP

In addition to dry air noted in water vapor loop imagery, you’ll notice a number of small upper level lows traversing the Atlantic.  This will usually preclude any development in the Atlantic, as these lows tend to induce wind shear from the North.  You will note however, as we get closer toward Aug., these should become less frequent, and spaced further apart.

Analysis of Global Models this morning models do not foresee any development over the next 7-10 days.  Again, this is to be expected, as we are still pretty much in the slow time of the season.  I am not expecting development over the next 7-10 days as another small outbreak of African dust is noted, and the Azores – Bermuda ridge is still forecast to remain above 1028 mb.  In about 9 days however, models seem to be in fair agreement of the ridge weakening to around 1026 – 1027 mb.  This could be enough to allow some heat build up in the tropics, and we MAY have to look toward the east, as both the CMC and GFS indicate upper level winds becoming conducive near the Cape Verde area at around 216 hours out in the forecast period from 06Z this morning, as well as what appears to be the NCEP and Multi Ensemble models trying to “sniff” something out.  However, this will remain to be seen.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY
seasonal-frequency-unsmoothed-small

SAL IMAGERY

GFS 216 HOUR WIND SHEAR FORECAST

NCEP /MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLES

One item of note that interests me..the TCHP values have increased, and cover a larger area as compared to last season at this time.

TCHP JULY 10, 2014

TCHP JULY 10, 2013

So, looks like as if it should remain tranquil over the next 7 – 10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL 11, 2014…ISSUED 2:00 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm and everyone. Back from a weeks vacation. Went to Bermuda by ship, we were affected somewhat by Hurricane Arthur, but not too bad. Got my “sea legs” quickly!. Bermuda is one beautiful island.Storm, glad you are getting a good number of work days, so get some rest this weekend. Thanks again.–I’ll be sending you something, Storm in about a week or so.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I echo Dellamom 1000%!! Thanks for all you do and God Bless as well!!

  3. dellamom says:

    Wow, a long weekend and quiet tropics. Get some REST, Storm! Go do something with your son! I am happy you are getting a needed respite for a bit and thanks for all your hard work throughout the year. God Bless.

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