ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
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Good day everyone! Finally get to do some forecasting….off from work today through Monday.
Satellite imagery indicates the tropics remain quiet with a pretty stable atmosphere, noted by stratocumulus clods and dry air.
In addition to dry air noted in water vapor loop imagery, you’ll notice a number of small upper level lows traversing the Atlantic. This will usually preclude any development in the Atlantic, as these lows tend to induce wind shear from the North. You will note however, as we get closer toward Aug., these should become less frequent, and spaced further apart.
Analysis of Global Models this morning models do not foresee any development over the next 7-10 days. Again, this is to be expected, as we are still pretty much in the slow time of the season. I am not expecting development over the next 7-10 days as another small outbreak of African dust is noted, and the Azores – Bermuda ridge is still forecast to remain above 1028 mb. In about 9 days however, models seem to be in fair agreement of the ridge weakening to around 1026 – 1027 mb. This could be enough to allow some heat build up in the tropics, and we MAY have to look toward the east, as both the CMC and GFS indicate upper level winds becoming conducive near the Cape Verde area at around 216 hours out in the forecast period from 06Z this morning, as well as what appears to be the NCEP and Multi Ensemble models trying to “sniff” something out. However, this will remain to be seen.
One item of note that interests me..the TCHP values have increased, and cover a larger area as compared to last season at this time.
So, looks like as if it should remain tranquil over the next 7 – 10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)