TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL 09, 2014…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

The tropics are once again quiet this morning.  Satellite imagery does indicate some thunderstorm activity near South America, however development will not occur.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP

NW ATLANTIC WATER VAPOR LOOP

Water vapor imagery shows plenty of dry air covering the Atlantic Basin, courtesy of the recent SAL outbreak, and a 1031 mb – 1032 mb Atlantic ridge.  You have heard me mention the strength of the ridge over the past couple of forecasts…let me shed some light.  What I do as a forecaster is compare the phase of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the strength and surface presentation of the Atlantic ridge.  The NAO has to do with the strength of the Icelandic low and Azores/Bermuda high.  When the pressure correlations between the two are strong (deeper Icelandic low, stronger A/B ridge) we are said to be in a positive phase of the NAO.  The opposite of the two places us in a negative NAO phase. Now, albeit the current NAO and the NAO forecast is showing slightly positive, then hovering near neutral to a weak negative, the current pressures for the A/B ridge indicate a little stronger NAO.  Regardless, the effect the stronger ridge has on the Atlantic pretty much explains the inactivity we are seeing.  Th stronger ridging affects the ocean in numerous ways.  The stronger ridge means stronger sinking motion over the Atlantic.  Meteorologically speaking, this is what we refer to as subsidence.  The air sinks, and as it does, it warms by compression, which dries the atmosphere (hence the dry air and lack of instability over the Atlantic).

NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST

TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP

Next, this induces quicker trade winds at the surface.  Now granted, evaporation is needed to some extent to induce the release of latent heat into the atmosphere for storm formation…however faster trade winds cause a greater evaporation rate, and basically takes any heat released, and spreads it over a larger area.  This latent heat needs to be released in more of a column, so it may rise and cool for condensation.  This is why we are seeing the lack of clouds.  So, these are just some of the reasons I have mentioned I am not looking for anything, until the ridge can weaken to around 1026 mb – 1024 mb.  In my research, I have found this pressure is pretty much the “mean” strength for the Azores High.

Analysis of the Global Computer models does not show ANY tropical development over the next 10-14 days.  However, the GFS in about 10 days indicates a very weak 1012 mb low SW of the Cape Verde islands.  I am not too concerned with this at the moment, as analyzing various levels of the atmosphere, from surface to 500 mb, there is no indication of an associated cyclonic wind field at that time.  IF this low does materialize, it will be monitored, as the upper level pattern, based on the current long range GFS shear forecast, could be extremely favorable near that time frame for a short period, with an 200 mb anticyclonic flow, and no detectable wind shear values.

WIND SHEAR PRODUCTS (FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OUTLINED)
GFS WIND SHEAR

GFS 200 MB STREAM240

Elsewhere, the most favorable area over the next 7 – 10 days is forecast to be off the SEUS coast, down to the northern Bahamas area, as far as the upper level wind pattern.

I am not expecting tropical storm formation during the next 7 – 10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL 09, 2014…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm all I can say is you are good,and you know your weather.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I hope everyone in the NEUS are OK after yesterdays Severe Outbreak.

  3. PortABeachbum says:

    Nice explanation Sr. Chief. Keep up the good work. We appreciate your efforts on our behalf.

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