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Good day everyone!
The Tropical Basins are quite this morning. The area of weather that was off the SEUS coast a couple days ago has dissipated. Upon review of information I analyzed as far as the wind shear forecast at that moment, comparison of real time shear vs what the GFS and CMC had put out, indicated the shear forecast by both models was somewhat erroneous. However runs on the following day, came in line with what was actually going on as far as shear. Analysis this morning however indicates the GFS may have a better handle on things now, as the models initialization matches up with the current wind shear product from CIMSS .
Computer models do not show any development over the next 10 to 14 days. The air mass over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins is pretty dry at the moment, and an SAL outbreak is seen in satellite imagery. Typically, SAL outbreaks are the worst in July, and have a tendency to diminish in frequency and intensity in AUG and SEP.
Upon analysis of Global Models and various forecast tools, I am honestly not looking for development anytime soon. Albeit wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic has been hovering at or below climatology this season, vertical instability is extremely low. This can be attributed in part, to the SAL outbreaks. However, although the NAO forecast does not really support what I am going to say, the Global Models 1000 mb – 500 mb MSLP/Thickness forecasts indicate the Azores / Bermuda High to continue to average between 1028 mb – 1032 mb throughout the next 14 – 16 days. Based on these two factors, I wouldn’t look for development soon, maybe not even by months end. The A/B High must weaken to around or below 1025 mb – 1024 mb. The only place we COULD see anything over this time,would be off the SEUS coast, to the northern Bahamas if any low pressure area stalled in that area, as this is where wind shear values, according to forecast, will be marginal to conducive over the next 7-10 days.
We are currently in a downward motion phase of the MJO as well, and the MJO is fairly much hanging in PHASE 4 at the moment.
In regard to questions on the Cape Verde season…Right now, unless some unforeseen change occurs, I am not expecting a busy Cape Verde season, if the IOD forecast pans out.
I should have an earlier synopsis tomorrow, as I go to work later in the a.m.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)