TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL 08, 2014…ISSUED 8:10 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

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Good day everyone!

The Tropical Basins are quite this morning.  The area of weather that was off the SEUS coast a couple days ago has dissipated.  Upon review of information I analyzed as far as the wind shear forecast at that moment, comparison of real time shear vs what the GFS and CMC had put out, indicated the shear forecast by both models was somewhat erroneous.  However runs on the following day, came in line with what was actually going on as far as shear.  Analysis this morning however indicates the GFS may have a better handle on things now, as the models initialization matches up with the current wind shear product from CIMSS .

GFS WIND SHEAR INITIALIZATION
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CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
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Computer models do not show any development over the next 10 to 14 days.  The air mass over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins is pretty dry at the moment, and an SAL outbreak is seen in satellite imagery.  Typically, SAL outbreaks are the worst in July, and have a tendency to diminish in frequency and intensity in AUG and SEP.

ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

SAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

Upon analysis of Global Models and various forecast tools, I am honestly not looking for development anytime soon.  Albeit wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic has been hovering at or below climatology this season, vertical instability is extremely low. This can be attributed in part, to the SAL outbreaks.  However, although the NAO forecast does not really support what I am going to say, the Global Models 1000 mb – 500 mb MSLP/Thickness forecasts indicate the Azores / Bermuda High to continue to average between 1028 mb – 1032 mb throughout the next 14 – 16 days.  Based on these two factors, I wouldn’t look for development soon, maybe not even by months end.  The A/B High must weaken to around or below 1025 mb – 1024 mb.  The only place we COULD see anything over this time,would be off the SEUS coast, to the northern Bahamas if any low pressure area stalled in that area, as this is where wind shear values, according to forecast, will be marginal to conducive over the next 7-10 days.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIND SHEAR

TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY

We are currently in a downward motion phase of the MJO as well, and the MJO is fairly much hanging in PHASE 4 at the moment.

In regard to questions on the Cape Verde season…Right now, unless some unforeseen change occurs, I am not expecting a busy Cape Verde season, if the IOD forecast pans out.

IOD FORECAST

I should have an earlier synopsis tomorrow, as I go to work later in the a.m.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL 08, 2014…ISSUED 8:10 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm for the update.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Hi Storm. Do you think this will be a busy season or a somewhat slow one?

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. After Arthur…quiet is good.

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