TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL 02, 2014…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

ALL forecasts from this Forecast Center are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products.  These forecasts are my product based on this, and are not copies from any other entity.

You may click on the graphics for animations and close in views

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Good day everyone!

Tropical Storm Arthur…the first Tropical Storm of the season has improved in structure SOMEWHAT, in that NWS Doppler Radar indicates a more symmetrical surface feature.  The cloud pattern still remains somewhat ragged, but appears to be improving slowly in the last couple of frames in satellite loop imagery.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The following information was available on Arthur as of the Public Advisory issued at 11:00 a.m. EDT from the NHC in Miami:

11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 2
Location: 29.1°N 79.1°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb / 29.44 in
Max sustained: 60 mph

 

11:00 A.M. HURREVAC TRACKING MAP
HURREVAC ARTHUR

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

Arthur has shown no change in strength since this morning.  The main attribute to this remains to be dry air to his north at mid levels, which is hindering further development at the moment.  Albeit at the moment, the 850 mb – 200 mb pattern is not optimal as far as an upper level anticyclone over the system, the wind shear tendency continues to abate over the system.  Winds at the 200 mb level do indicate a northern outflow channel which extends around the eastern side of Arthur.  As the forecast deep layer trof approaches from the west, it will aid in ventilating the area, which will help Arthur to intensify some more.  In fact, the latest run of both the GFS and CMC wind shear forecast, indicates an upper level anticyclone becoming once again established over the center of Arthur in about 12 hours.  Based on my analysis of these parameters, I agree with the NHC forecast intensity scenario, which is inline with the Forecast Intensity Models from 12Z this morning.  Based on these factors, Arthur could attain Category ONE Hurricane status by late this afternoon or  sometime this evening.  I am basing this on the latest satellite loop imagery showing an “eye” feature in the last couple of frames.  Tropical Storm WARNINGS and a HURRICANE WATCH are now in effect.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/021455.shtml?

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/021459.shtml?

NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls1.shtml

INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
ATCF INTENSITY

Analysis of Water Vapor Loop imagery, Forecast steering layers maps valid at 12Z, and Current steering layer mean, indicates Albeit Arthur is now moving to the North, he remains in a weak steering regime at the moment.  The forecast steering maps are indicating Arthur COULD make a direct hit on Hatteras and the OBX.  However, based on my analysis of Water Vapor Loop images, and current motion via satellite imagery, I have to agree with the NHC track at this time, which is inline with the majority of the Dynamic Model Guidance from 12Z.  HOWEVER, bear in mind, any further northward motion other than depicted in the tracking map, COULD bring Arthur closer to the NC coast.  At this particular time, I am going to discount the forecast steering layers maps, until the new run which will not post until early this evening, valid for 00Z tonight.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
ARTHUR DYNAMIC

Residents within the HURRICANE WATCH AREA should be making preparations at this time, and should monitor the progress of Arthur in the event a HURRICANE WARNING is issued.  ANY deviation to the left of forecast track, would extend the area of the watch, and most likely cause a Hurricane Warning to be issued for portions of the watch area.  Residents should also monitor this closely for any significant changes in forecast parameters, should they occur.

Arthur’s wind  field is extremely small, and the bulk of the weather associated with this storm should remain offshore.  Boaters are urged to remain off the water, or seek safe harbor as needed.  Residents along the Eastern Seaboard up to the OBX / Pamlico sound area should remain away from beaches and STAY OUT OF THE WATER…Rip currents WILL BE PRESENT…along with increasing surf.

ALL of the graphics on this site are linked, and you can click on them for larger, clearer images, and for updated storm information.  IF I cannot update this evening, I will try and have an update tomorrow morning before I head out for work.

Tropical Cyclone Potential Impacts (TCI) — Experimental
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR

WIND
http://w1.weather.gov/tcig/php/tcig_index.php?sid=MHX

COASTAL FLOOD
http://w1.weather.gov/tcig/php/tcig_index.php?sid=mhx&threat=coastal

INLAND FLOOD
http://w1.weather.gov/tcig/php/tcig_index.php?sid=mhx&threat=inland

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR (WITH NWS RADAR LOOP)

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

I will continue to monitor Arthur for any significant changes.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUL 02, 2014…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Arthur looking quite impressive on Vis Sat.

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