TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…91L BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED…JUN 29, 2014…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good morning afternoon!

Current satellite loop imagery, and the ASCAT pass from earlier this morning, tend to indicate Tropical Disturbance INVEST 91L continues to exhibit signs of further slow organization.

INVEST 91L SATELLITE FLOATER LOOP IMAGERY

ASCAT MORNING PASS

Information from the ATCF FTP data site  provided the following on INVEST 91L:

LOCATION: 29.6N…77.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1015 MB / 29.98 IN.
MOVEMENT: SOUTHWARD DRIFT

The NHC has increased the probability of Tropical Cyclone development over the next 48 hours to HIGH (60%), and 80% during the next 5 days.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Based on my analysis of the current run of Wind Shear forecast maps from both the GFS and CMC models, an upper level anticyclone is established over 91L, and should remain in place during the next 30-36 hours.  Thereafter, the models diverge somewhat on the upper level pattern flow, and suggests that 91L could encounter a flow out of the north, losing the upper level anticyclone for a short period, albeit models suggest the upper level anticyclone re-establishing itself by day 5 in the forecast period from 12Z this morning.  Although the upper pattern may change, wind shear values are forecast to remain for the most part 15 knots or less over the next 5 days. 

Dry air is noted in Water Vapor loop imagery, and this could be an inhibiting factor in overall strength in the next 48-72 hours.  Based on this, and analysis of the current Forecast Intensity Models, the modeling has been fairly consistent in showing the development of a Tropical Storm.  The current run does indicate a little stronger system than earlier, and based on the more accurate of the intensity models, 91L could become a 50 – 60 mph Tropical Storm during the next 4 days.  Based on the wind shear forecast, right now I am not looking for anything stronger at the moment, however I will be monitoring the situation for any significant changes, as the ECMWF model seems bullish on this one.

INVEST 91L WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
ATCF INTENSITY

91L is currently drifting to the South, and I expect this motion to continue over the next 18-24 hours based on current weak steering currents, and the most available forecast steering layers maps.

Around this time, based on the steering forecast, 91L should begin a semi cyclonic loop toward the west, and could skirt, or move inland slightly over the Florida East coast, before skirting the coasts of SC/NC.  this is shown in forecast steering, and is inline with the Dynamic Model Guidance of the TVCN / TVCC models.

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (EARLY)
INVEST 90L DYNAMIC

Given these parameters, any further organization and sustained convection near the COC could lead to a Tropical Depression to develop soon, and based on the NHC upgrade in probability, I would not rule out a minimal Tropical Storm as the system begins to skirt the FL. coast during the beginning of it’s forecast northward movement.

Based on this, I recommend residents along the FL. East coast, northward to the NC OBX monitor this system closely for any significant changes that could occur, and be prepared to possibly encounter Tropical Storm force conditions if forecast conditions do in fact come to fruition.

I wil continue to monitor this system, and intend to have another full update in the morning.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)


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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…91L BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED…JUN 29, 2014…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the updates Storm! Wonder how this season will be in the GOM this year….

    • Hard to say…Feels like it’s gonna be a weird season.

      • dellamom says:

        I’m sorry to hear (read?) that, Storm. Weird for you is downright incomprehensible for me, so I am very glad we have you to interpret, although weird probably means more work for you.

        About hurricane preparedness: Since the season has apparently started, I entered Chihuahua mode this weekend and harangued my husband and stepsons to get on the preparedness bandwagon and would like to share with y’all. To everyone on this site, in addition to basic food/water/medication preparations, please assume for a couple of minutes that the system is headed for YOU and not for the Carolinas (unless you are in the Carolinas), and figure out what you would want to have with you if you knew you wouldn’t be allowed back to your house for a few months, then prepare accordingly. That is what happened to people here during Katrina. Most of us packed up for a three-day “hurricane holiday” and were horrified to learn that, not only would we not be allowed back home for awhile, but once we got back, there was almost nothing to salvage because it had been sitting in nasty hurricane, swamp, flood waters. I don’t think anyone here has packed for a “hurricane vacation” since that time, and I would hate for others to experience that level of loss.

        • Dellamom, Thank you for bringing up Hurricane Preparedness information. I’m going to be working on renewing the links on the side of the main page with preparedness information. Just haven’t found the time as of yet.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. All eyes on 91L. Will pass this on and continue to monitor Senior Chief!!

  3. theresa kay says:

    Thank you!

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