TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 25, 2014…ISSUED AT 10:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good morning all!

The tropics have really not shown any change this morning.  The ITCZ remains fairly active around South and Central America, and into the EPAC.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of Global Models this morning indicates none of the models indicate any development over the next 7-10 days.  One thing that does appears strange to me however is, the difference between the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product from CIRA/RAMMB, and the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis page.  The TCFP Guidance indicates a very low probability of development near the BOC during the next 48 hours, while the NCEP/EMC page has 3 models (The Multi Model Ensemble, NCEP Ensemble, and SREF Ensemble) indicating a fairly high probability around the same area.  This may be in response to the disturbed area entering that vicinity this morning.  I am more inclined to go with the CIRA/RAMBB product, as wind shear at the moment, and over the next 7 days argues against any development.  Just goes to show, that various models can have LARGE differences in their forecast products, especially in initialization.  As always, I’ll keep an eye on the area, as wind shear just to the north has been declining  over the past 24 hours, and all of us who have paid attention over pat seasons know how quickly the upper pattern can change (i.e Humberto 2007).  One item of note…albeit the wind shear over the Caribbean has been well above climatology, the Tropical Atlantic has shown the opposite, with shear levels being around or below climatology.

TFCP PROBABILITY PAGE

NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS PROBABILITY PAGE

Upward  Vertical Velocities area over the area from the MJO, indicating it is in Octant or Phase 8 at the moment.

VERTICAL VELOCITY ANOMALIES (GREEN = UPWARD MOTION (LIFT), BROWN = DOWNWARD MOTION (SINKING AIR)

The ESRL 500 MB Anomaly forecast still shows a significant lowering of pressure over the BOC in about 8 days, however based on the current wind shear forecast, I’m not looking for anything to happen in that area, unless for some reason conditions change.

There is quite the lack of TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) or also known as OCH (Ocean Heat Content).  This is most likely the result of the SAL Outbreaks we have seen recently, which has a tendency to block insolation.  One can see the SAL in the magenta color I have circled.

TCHP

SAL
EUMETSAT_MSG_RGB-dust-all

The Nino area has diminished in size somewhat, but intensified slightly.  IF the GFS forecast for the 200mb Vertical Velocity Anomalies pans out, we COULD see another slight warming, as the forecast shows a strong downward motion near Australia by the fourth of July.  Given the reduction in overall area coverage in the Nino region, it is unknown if the ocean and atmospheric teleconnection will happen.

SST ANOMALIES FOR JUNE 24, 2014
sstanomalyGLOBAL

GFS VERTICAL VELOCITY ANOMALIES FORECAST

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 25, 2014…ISSUED AT 10:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr great job as always. This is definely going to be one interesting hurricane season.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. If anyone out there is still having a drought, we’d be happy to send them some wet. The heavy rains we had on the Northshore Saturday gave us a test-run of how the drainage my husband installed recently will handle hurricane rains, and the way the trees were whipping makes me really happy we aren’t fully forested on our property. Thanks for keeping us posted on what all of that weather means to our various locations. Get some rest and eat your Wheaties, because it looks like we’re gonna need you down the road a bit. Prayers to you and yours.

    • Greg goodman says:

      Hello dellamom interesting hurricane season thank god we have mr storm.

      • dellamom says:

        Hello Greg. Thank God, indeed. Storm’s a good person and an excellent forecaster. I know we all breathe a bit easier during hurricane season knowing he’s looking out for us, and then explaining it so we can understand it. Wheaties, Storm, Wheaties. Maybe we can get your picture on the box! 🙂

  3. originallt says:

    Thank you, Storm, complicated as usual! I echo, Monty, glad we got you!

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Definitely a lot of ingredients have to come together. Glad we’ve got you!! I’m real curious on how El Nino will pan out later in the year.

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