TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 24, 2014…ISSUED 7:40 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening everyone!

The tropics remain quiet, inline with climatology.

One area that sort of caught my interest, is over Mexico, near shore ALONG 22.5N;97.5W, with cyclonic turning noted.  It will be interesting to see if this enters the GOMEX.  Upper level winds however are forecast to remain non conducive for development over the next 5 days.  An area of disturbed weather over the Isthmus of Panama is moving toward the west, and looks as if the EPAC may get another INVEST.

WEST ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

On another note, Global models do not indicate any tropical development over the next 7 to 10 days.  However, the NOAA ESRL 500 mb anomaly maps indicate a significant lowering of pressures in the BOC in about 10 days.  This could be interesting, in that the UPWARD motion of the MJO may enter into PHASE 1.  The MJO Multivariate index forecast from the Dynamic modeling is still split, with the ECMWF ranging from phase 4 to phase 6.  The GFS modeling indicates the MJO going into phase 1.  It is hard to say at the moment, since the MJO has not been well behaved…however I am opting with the GFS on this, as we can see, based n the ECMWF showing the MJO being within phase 6 for the most part, the most recent 200 hPa Vertical Velocities Potential Anomalies map does indicate upward motion into phase 8.  Phases 8 and 1 are generally when we turn our attention to the GOMEX and Caribbean for enhanced convective activity.  Long story short, it will be interesting to see what happens over the next 7-10 days.

NOAA ESRL 500 MB ANOMALY MAP

GFS AND ECMWF MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX MJO FORECAST

200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY ANOMALIES (GREEN INDICATES UPWARD MOTION, BROWN INDICATES DOWNWARD MOTION)

A rather large SAL outbreak is noted in satellite imagery.

SAL IMAGERY
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Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 24, 2014…ISSUED 7:40 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. HA…the fun continues for the EPAC. I could be wrong…but doesn’t a more positively tilted ENSO enhance EPAC activity? It sure seems you can tell what it’s doing on our side. Given…it’s only June. Thanks again Senior Chief…GET SOME REST!!

    • Well, if you mean, warmer sst anomalies in the EPAC, Equatorial region…as a rule, yes. El Nino means a more active PAC side than ATL side. However, the current state of ENSO isn’t up to levels that would hinder our side. By looking at the SOI in the positive, it indicates the teleconnection between the SST and atmosphere hasn’t happened yet.

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