Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather I had been watching in the SW Caribbean has succumbed to wind shear. Satellite loop imagery indicates the majority of the broad cyclonic motion is now over land.
Elsewhere, satellite loop imagery, and NWS Doppler Radar loops indicate an area of disturbed weather just off the Florida east coast, ENE of the Daytona Beach area.
Analysis this morning reveals an increase of vorticity has occurred at the 850 mb, and 925 mb layers. Analysis from 925 mb to 500 mb indicates the disturbance is not quite as “tilted”as it was yesterday.
Analysis of the current wind shear maps from CIMSS indicates shear has been relaxing over the past 24 hours, and the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds “could” become somewhat conducive for further slow organization of this disturbance, albeit I do not expect any significant development.
The disturbance remains pretty much stationary, as steering currents are weak at the moment. Based on analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, I expect this to meander around for the next 24-30 hours, before a trof beings to lift it out toward the ENE. As this occurs, it will eventually encounter stronger wind shear values.
We’ll have to see what the end of the month, beginning of July brings, as modeling is still split on the phase of the MJO, with a split between phase 6, to phase 1, and OLR anomalies supporting more upward motion in our area.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)