TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUN 20, 2014…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather I had been watching in the SW Caribbean has succumbed to wind shear.  Satellite loop imagery indicates the majority of the broad cyclonic motion is now over land.

WEST ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, satellite loop imagery, and NWS Doppler Radar loops indicate an area of disturbed weather just off the Florida east coast, ENE of the Daytona Beach area.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

NWS DOPPLER RADAR (CLICK FOR LOOP)

Analysis this morning reveals an increase of vorticity has occurred at the 850 mb, and 925 mb layers.  Analysis from 925 mb to 500 mb indicates the disturbance is not quite as “tilted”as it was yesterday.

PSU E-WALL 925 MB VORTICITY

CIMSS 850 MB – 500 MB VORTICITY



The NHC has designated a 10% chance for any development with this disturbance

Analysis of the current wind shear maps from CIMSS indicates shear has been relaxing over the past 24 hours, and the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds “could” become somewhat conducive for further slow organization of this disturbance, albeit I do not expect any significant development. 

CURRENT 850 MB – 200 MB SHEAR

CIMSS MID LEVEL SHEAR

CURRENT GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 48 HOURS

The disturbance remains pretty much stationary, as steering currents are weak at the moment.  Based on analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, I expect this to meander around for the next 24-30 hours, before a trof beings to lift it out toward the ENE.  As this occurs, it will eventually encounter stronger wind shear values.

We’ll have to see what the end of the month, beginning of July brings, as modeling is still split on the phase of the MJO, with a split between phase 6, to phase 1, and OLR anomalies supporting more upward motion in our area.

ECMWF

GEFS

FORECAST OLR ANOMALIES


Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUN 20, 2014…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, hey, maybe this is the “Calm before the Storm!”

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…sorry so late…what a Friday. HA…it looks like NHC is following your lead!!

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks, StormW! I appreciate knowing all the “might be” scenarios so I won’t be caught unaware. There are a few older and/or disabled people I will need to bring over here in the event of a problem, and you make sure I am alert to the possibilities and the probabilities and the difference between them. God Bless you and yours.

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