Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather I had been watching in the SW Caribbean has become less compact due to wind shear. A large, broad area of cyclonic turning still remains notable. Although I am not expecting development, I will continue to monitor the area over the next 5 days as upper level winds are forecast to relax to a little more favorable environment.
Elsewhere, satellite loop imagery, and NWS Doppler Radar loops indicate an area of disturbed weather has popped up just off the Florida East Coast near the Melbourne area. Small outflow boundaries noted in satellite imagery indicate some slight ingestion of drier air.
However, analysis of current wind shear maps, both 850-200 mb, and 850-500 mb indicate upper level winds are only around 10 knots over the area (850-200), and mid level shear of less than 10 knots. The current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds could be only somewhat favorable to marginal over the next 72 hours in the path this may follow. There is a small window, as the zonal shear map indicates this disturbance may be within the ZERO zonal shear line for about 24 hours. However, one item of note, the upper pattern is favoring a weak upper level cyclone over this area. This will make it tougher for any further development, however not impossible. IF the shear forecast does verify, I believe this could become slightly better organized, prior to being caught up in the approaching trof. The buoy directly east of Titusville indicates pressure in the area was 30.10 inches and falling.
NDBC BUOY 41009 (CLICK ON IMAGE)
Steering currents at the moment are somewhat weak, and this should continue a slow drift toward the N for about the next 36 hours. As the trof approaches, forecast steering layers maps suggest a track more to the ENE and away from the U.S.
I will continue to monitor this area over the next 72 hours for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 days.
Have a blessed evening
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)