TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DISTURBANCE EAST OF MELBOURNE FL…JUN 19, 2014…ISSUED 5:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather I had been watching in the SW Caribbean has become less compact due to wind shear.  A large, broad area of cyclonic turning still remains notable.  Although I am not expecting development, I will continue to monitor the area over the next 5 days as upper level winds are forecast to relax to a little more favorable environment.

WEST ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, satellite loop imagery, and NWS Doppler Radar loops indicate an area of disturbed weather has popped up just off the Florida East Coast near the Melbourne area.  Small outflow boundaries noted in satellite imagery indicate some slight ingestion of drier air.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

NWS DOPPLER RADAR (CLICK FOR LOOP)

The NHC has designated a 0% chance for any development due to upper level winds.

However, analysis of current wind shear maps, both 850-200 mb, and 850-500 mb indicate upper level winds are only around 10 knots over the area (850-200), and mid level shear of less than 10 knots.  The current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds could be only somewhat favorable to marginal over the next 72 hours in the path this may follow.  There is a small  window, as the zonal shear map indicates this disturbance may be within the ZERO zonal shear line for about 24 hours. However, one item of note, the upper pattern is favoring a weak upper level cyclone over this area.  This will make it tougher for any further development, however not impossible.  IF the shear forecast does verify, I believe this could become slightly better organized, prior to being caught up in the approaching trof.  The buoy directly east of Titusville indicates pressure in the area was 30.10 inches and falling.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS

WIND SHEAR (850-200 MB) / (850-500 MB) /  ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST

NDBC BUOY 41009  (CLICK ON IMAGE)

Steering currents at the moment are somewhat weak, and this should continue a slow drift toward the N for about the next 36 hours.  As the trof approaches, forecast steering layers maps suggest a track more to the ENE and away from the U.S.

I will continue to monitor this area over the next 72 hours for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

Have a blessed evening

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DISTURBANCE EAST OF MELBOURNE FL…JUN 19, 2014…ISSUED 5:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. I guess “climatology “is still winning out. I know it is the season but it is very early yet. Still hard to get things going in June.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Well…at least there’s a little something to watch.

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