Good day everyone!
Morning analysis of the Global Modeling indicates no tropical development for the next week or so.
I am however continuing to monitor the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean which has been hanging around the Honduras/Nicaragua area for over 48 hours. Cyclonic turning is still noted in satellite loop imagery, and ASCAT from yesterday has detected a wind shift in the area.
Albeit I am not expecting development of this over the next 72-96 hours, since it has been almost stationary, I am going to continue to monitor the area for any significant changes to the pattern, as the current wind shear forecast does call for upper level winds to begin to become somewhat more favorable in around 4-5 days from now. As I have stated before, 500-850 mb shear values are forecast to drop greatly, which can allow for a shallow system, although not always the case. This is how we were able to see some systems to become depressions over the past few seasons, in the face of 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, however once they began to build above mid level, they got blasted by shear.
The current 500 mb anomaly forecast still continues to show a lowering of pressure around the area of the Yucatan Channel, southward, in the same time period.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5-7 days.
On another interesting note…the onset of El Nino has slowed, and the teleconnection between the Ocean and Tropical Atmosphere has not taken place as of yet.
From the BOM:
Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Niño development.
The SOI running 30 day chart indicates the SOI to still be in positive values, which indicates trade winds over the Equatorial Pacific are blowing from East to West, halting any further advance of warmer sst’s coming East.
The latest from the BOM in regard to the Climate Models tends to indicate a weaker El Nino than thought, which could indicate NEUTRAL with WARM BIAS conditions.
CLIMATE MODEL OUTLOOKS
Further research even suggests we could go into an El Nino MODOKI, which is currently supported by the CFSv2 and ECMWF seasonal forecast solutions regarding SST’s.
These conditions mentioned would in all probability have an effect on wind shear across the MDR by the heart of the season, especially if the teleconnection between the ocean and tropical atmosphere never occurs.
This will remain to be seen however, and I will be monitoring these conditions as well.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)