TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…EL NINO MODOKI? JUN 18, 2014…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Morning analysis of the Global Modeling indicates no tropical development for the next week or so.

I am however continuing to monitor the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean which has been hanging around the Honduras/Nicaragua area for over 48 hours.  Cyclonic turning is still noted in satellite loop imagery, and ASCAT from yesterday has detected a wind shift in the area.

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

ASCAT PASS FROM 17 JUNE 2014

Albeit I am not expecting development of this over the next 72-96 hours, since it has been almost stationary, I am going to continue to monitor the area for any significant changes to the pattern, as the current wind shear forecast does call for upper level winds to begin to become somewhat more favorable in around 4-5 days from now.  As I have stated before, 500-850 mb shear values are forecast to drop greatly, which can allow for a shallow system, although not always the case.   This is how we were able to see some systems to become depressions over the past few seasons, in the face of 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, however once they began to build above mid level, they got blasted by shear.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 96-120 HOURS 850-200 MB

GFS MID LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST

The current 500 mb anomaly forecast still continues to show a lowering of pressure around the area of the Yucatan Channel, southward, in the same time period.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5-7 days.

On another interesting note…the onset of El Nino has slowed, and the teleconnection between the Ocean and Tropical Atmosphere has not taken place as of yet.

From the BOM:
Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Niño development.

The SOI running 30 day chart indicates the SOI to still be in positive values, which indicates trade winds over the Equatorial Pacific are blowing from East to West, halting any further advance of warmer sst’s coming East.

SOI 30 DAY RUNNING VALUES

The latest from the BOM in regard to the Climate Models tends to indicate a weaker El Nino than thought, which could indicate NEUTRAL with WARM BIAS conditions.

CLIMATE MODEL OUTLOOKS

JULY

SEPTEMBER

Further research even suggests we could go into an El Nino MODOKI, which is currently supported by the CFSv2 and ECMWF seasonal forecast solutions regarding SST’s.

CFS SOLUTION

ECMWF SOLUTION

These conditions mentioned would in all probability have an effect on wind shear across the MDR by the heart of the season, especially if the teleconnection between the ocean and tropical atmosphere never occurs.

This will remain to be seen however, and I will be monitoring these conditions as well.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…EL NINO MODOKI? JUN 18, 2014…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Elliot Lisak says:

    Master Chief

    Permission to come aboard Sir.
    Hay guys (and Girls) ….. I am back!
    Satellite imagery ….. other analysis show a mid and upper level low pressure system that is located about halfway between Florida Keys & Andros Island. Satellite shows shower & thunderstorm activity across Western and Northern Bahamas as well as across areas just north of the Florida Keys.

    Can anything spin up here?

  2. dellamom says:

    Okay, Storm. I didn’t get that so I looked up El Nino Modoki. I understand that the warmer area is in the central pacific instead of the eastern pacific but, like Greg, I don’t understand the impact it will or could have on US tropical activity in terms of location, intensity or frequency. I know you are super busy, but when you get a bit of a breather, I’d appreciate a small lesson. (The truly bad part is that I am sure the answer is in your message above, but I just didn’t wrap my brain around it.) Thanks.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Things seem pretty complicated to me!

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…interesting on El Nino…could be an interesting Winter if the September Models hold up.

  5. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm with the slowing of elnino do you think this might be a interesting hurricane season?

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