TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR NICARAGUA…JUN 17, 2014…ISSUED 7:15 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening all!

The area I have been watching in the Caribbean Sea, around the Honduras/Nicaragua area has increased cyclonic turning this evening which was noted early this afternoon.  As far as I can tell from close analysis of satellite loop imagery, and area of low pressure may be trying to develop just along the coast of Nicaragua (circled in red).
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

NOAA GOMEX SATELLITE AND RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

Currently, upper level winds are not conducive for further development.  However the GFS wind shear forecast, albeit a change in the pattern, does indicate wind shear to relax within about 96-120 hours.  The GFS does however indicate, mid shear (850-500 mb level) could relax to next to nothing within this time period.  IF this area remains very slow moving, or stationary, this could be enough to allow a shallow system to begin to take shape.

GFS 850-200 MB SHEAR FORECAST

GFS 850-500 MB SHEAR FORECAST

However, current steering indicates a good flow out of the east.  With that said however,  the steering flow based on the current steering layers map, and satellite loop imagery, takes on more of a flow toward the WNW once over Honduras, along with a slight weakness in the ridge over the extreme portion of the western Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX).  Right now, it is just a little difficult to tell whether or not said weakness could induce a more WNW motion of this disturbed weather.  The current forecast steering layers maps run indicates a change to a flow more toward the WNW in about 72 hours, and indicates the ridge over the SE to move west slightly, retreat northward, and begin to breakdown.  So, the bottom line…should this disturbed weather just meander or stall, it may have a chance to begin to show slow development.  It is unknown whether or not the NHC is going to designate his as an INVEST or not.  If it persists with convection and the pronounced cyclonic turning for the next 24 hours, I would not rule it out.

CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING 700-850 MB

I’ll have another synopsis in the morning.

Have a blessed evening.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR NICARAGUA…JUN 17, 2014…ISSUED 7:15 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. The Beachbums of Port-A says:

    Thanks for the heads-up storm. Ee’ll keep our eyes open.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and sorry, Monty about the losses there in NE.

  3. Eric McLin says:

    Nhc is not even mentioning the area. Surprised.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm….Looks like some pretty good convection with this thing…wonder if they will assign an invest soon?? Wow…they’re saying EF4 on the Pilger, NE Twister with a Sister!! My friends moms nephew lost their house in Pilger…total devastation. It sucks something so awesome has to be so damned destructive and deadly.

    • WOW…Prayers to them. How far from where I had the outline?

      • Monty says:

        If I’m not mistaken…just a little East I think. It surprised me that SPC forecast a Slight Risk for that area today…seems like all the action is NW their position. OMA WFO didn’t even put storms in the forecast but had the mention of Severe Storms if Boundary Layer/other ingredients fall into place…nothing yet. The Forecasters were even advertising CAPEs at 4000-6000 J/Kg. But…I think they were talking further North and West. All in all Storm…I’d say you pegged the thing pretty good. I don’t have that synopsis on me but I know you’re always right on on hitting the hotspots Senior Chief!!

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