Good evening all!
The area I have been watching in the Caribbean Sea, around the Honduras/Nicaragua area has increased cyclonic turning this evening which was noted early this afternoon. As far as I can tell from close analysis of satellite loop imagery, and area of low pressure may be trying to develop just along the coast of Nicaragua (circled in red).
Currently, upper level winds are not conducive for further development. However the GFS wind shear forecast, albeit a change in the pattern, does indicate wind shear to relax within about 96-120 hours. The GFS does however indicate, mid shear (850-500 mb level) could relax to next to nothing within this time period. IF this area remains very slow moving, or stationary, this could be enough to allow a shallow system to begin to take shape.
However, current steering indicates a good flow out of the east. With that said however, the steering flow based on the current steering layers map, and satellite loop imagery, takes on more of a flow toward the WNW once over Honduras, along with a slight weakness in the ridge over the extreme portion of the western Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX). Right now, it is just a little difficult to tell whether or not said weakness could induce a more WNW motion of this disturbed weather. The current forecast steering layers maps run indicates a change to a flow more toward the WNW in about 72 hours, and indicates the ridge over the SE to move west slightly, retreat northward, and begin to breakdown. So, the bottom line…should this disturbed weather just meander or stall, it may have a chance to begin to show slow development. It is unknown whether or not the NHC is going to designate his as an INVEST or not. If it persists with convection and the pronounced cyclonic turning for the next 24 hours, I would not rule it out.
I’ll have another synopsis in the morning.
Have a blessed evening.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)