TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS,INTO THE GOMEX…JUNE 13, 2014…ISSUED 4:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/force.html#.U4zx4Hb09hC

TropicalCyclones11

Good day everyone!  I haven’t forgotten about you.  Been real busy with work, so I have been in the “monitoring mode” over the past couple days.  The Tropics remain quiet, which is expected this time of the season.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP WIDE VIEW

The most current run of the GFS still indicates tropical development IVO the Yucatan/Honduras area in about 5 to 7 days as far as initiation.  However, I am not too sold on the strength if development does occur.  I prefer the FIM solution thus far.

Analysis of other Global Modeling does tend to indicate support to the GFS, albeit in varying degrees of intensity.  The FIM, which lends the strongest support has not really changed its solution.  The Navy NAVGEM model is now indicating an area of weak low pressure in the vicinity.

Those who have been asking about the ECMWF…the current run from 00Z matches fairly well with the GFS 00Z run at 144 hours as far as the area where initiation begins with an elongated area of increased wind:

ECMWF

GFS
GFS SURFACE 144

GFS SURFACE 180
GFS SURFACE 240
FIM MODEL

There is still the fact of lowering pressures in the area, albeit not as significant as the last 3 runs, but the parameter still exists.  Another item of note on this, both the ECMWF and GFS 8-10 day mean 500 mb anomaly charts tend to indicate this, with a break in the ridge noted over this area (GFS) and northward kink in the 588mb line (ECMWF).

ESRL 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY DEPARTURE

PSU E-WALL 500MB MEAN 8-10 DAY

Models supporting the GFS are also gaining support from the NCEP Ensemble and Multi Model Cyclogenesis Probability models, albeit not as strong as the early morning run.

NCEP ENSEMBLE / MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST

Upper level winds are still forecast to become somewhat conducive for tropical development over the area, with the building of an upper level anticyclone.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 180 HOURS

One item of note, is the forecast of the MJO.  If dry air is not abundant over the area, or lacking at the time this is supposed to occur, I really don’t believe the MJO will play a hand in this.  If an upward motion phase is not present, I believe we may have “neutral” MJO conditions around that time frame, However, the MJO does play an integral part early in our season regarding development, in that it allows for faster development.  Case in point however, we have now had 3 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, the current one, Cindy at Category 2.  If you analyze the following OLR anomaly map, you can see the area where she is located is under some not very intense downward vertical velocities, yet she is still a CAT 2 Hurricane.  I do believe whatever may occur, will be aided by the EPAC Monsoon trof.  Based on the combination of weak to moderate forecast factors, which have been present now for the past few days, I believe we could see development of an INVEST to Tropical Depression initiating by the middle of nest week.  I will be able to provide a more accurate outlook once we get into a 72 forecast time frame, and real time satellite and wind shear data.

OLR ANOMALY MAP

NHC CHRISTINA MAP

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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12 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS,INTO THE GOMEX…JUNE 13, 2014…ISSUED 4:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    HAPPY FATHERS DAY MR STORM.

  2. Very nice content and a job well done! You are awesome!

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm correct me if I am wrong is that the year florida got stuck by all of thosr hurricanes and ivan hit around my area?

  4. Monty' says:

    Thanks Storm. Get your rest my friend. We appreciate all you do. Wow… two Cat 4s in June in EPAC…damn impressive!!

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks for another detailed analysis, Storm.

  6. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm a great forecast by a great expert.Mr storm do you think this will be a interesting hurricane season?I want to thankyou for keeping us inform.

    • Thank you Greg. Yes, I do. I looked at a video from Weather Bell, and Joe Bastardi pointed out, we may go into an El Nino Modoki. I looked at the CFS model he referred to, and it shows just that. Hurricane season of 2004 had a Modoki.

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