HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
Good day everyone! I haven’t forgotten about you. Been real busy with work, so I have been in the “monitoring mode” over the past couple days. The Tropics remain quiet, which is expected this time of the season.
The most current run of the GFS still indicates tropical development IVO the Yucatan/Honduras area in about 5 to 7 days as far as initiation. However, I am not too sold on the strength if development does occur. I prefer the FIM solution thus far.
Analysis of other Global Modeling does tend to indicate support to the GFS, albeit in varying degrees of intensity. The FIM, which lends the strongest support has not really changed its solution. The Navy NAVGEM model is now indicating an area of weak low pressure in the vicinity.
Those who have been asking about the ECMWF…the current run from 00Z matches fairly well with the GFS 00Z run at 144 hours as far as the area where initiation begins with an elongated area of increased wind:
There is still the fact of lowering pressures in the area, albeit not as significant as the last 3 runs, but the parameter still exists. Another item of note on this, both the ECMWF and GFS 8-10 day mean 500 mb anomaly charts tend to indicate this, with a break in the ridge noted over this area (GFS) and northward kink in the 588mb line (ECMWF).
Models supporting the GFS are also gaining support from the NCEP Ensemble and Multi Model Cyclogenesis Probability models, albeit not as strong as the early morning run.
Upper level winds are still forecast to become somewhat conducive for tropical development over the area, with the building of an upper level anticyclone.
One item of note, is the forecast of the MJO. If dry air is not abundant over the area, or lacking at the time this is supposed to occur, I really don’t believe the MJO will play a hand in this. If an upward motion phase is not present, I believe we may have “neutral” MJO conditions around that time frame, However, the MJO does play an integral part early in our season regarding development, in that it allows for faster development. Case in point however, we have now had 3 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, the current one, Cindy at Category 2. If you analyze the following OLR anomaly map, you can see the area where she is located is under some not very intense downward vertical velocities, yet she is still a CAT 2 Hurricane. I do believe whatever may occur, will be aided by the EPAC Monsoon trof. Based on the combination of weak to moderate forecast factors, which have been present now for the past few days, I believe we could see development of an INVEST to Tropical Depression initiating by the middle of nest week. I will be able to provide a more accurate outlook once we get into a 72 forecast time frame, and real time satellite and wind shear data.
Have a blessed weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)