TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUN 11, 2014…ISSUED 10:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/force.html#.U4zx4Hb09hC

TropicalCyclones11

Good day all!

The tropics remain quiet this morning.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP WIDE VIEW

Based on analysis of the most current run of the Global Models (06Z), the GFS is still suggesting development near the Yucatan Peninsula, over the Gulf of Honduras, initiating an area of low pressure in about 6 days from now.  Albeit the GFS has always had a history of feeding back and creating spurious cyclones, it was the ONLY model, besides the FIM which indicated some sort of development in the BOC at about 12 days out in the period.  Although it did drop it for about 3 runs, it resumed “sniffing” out something, to which we had INVEST 90L declared.  Over the past 3 days, I have pulled up all previous runs on the GFS, and the model has now been consistent in the past 12 runs in hinting at low pressure developing around the mentioned area.  The recent run of the FIM model is currently supporting the GFS in its solution, and has come up with a little stronger signature on the map than yesterday.

GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS (CLICK FOR LARGE, CLEAR IMAGE)
GFS SURFACE 156
GFS SURFACE 240
FIM MODEL OUTPUT

Does this mean we will definitely see development?  NO.  However indications of other factors indicate a very decent probability.  The current wind shear forecast maps indicate upper level winds to become more favorable for development around that time in the forecast period, with an upper level anticyclone developing over the GOMEX once and if we have something move into the GOMEX.  Zonal shear indicates the “center” of this supposed low should lie within the ZERO Zonal hear line.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST / ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST 252 HOURS

Albeit not as strong as previous runs, the NCEP Ensemble Mean Anomaly Departure map for the 500 mb level still indicates a lowering of pressure over the area.

NCEP ENS. 500 MB ANOMALY FORECAST

The one parameter left in question is the forecast phase of the MJO.  Dynamic model guidance indicates the MJO to hang around Octant, or be in Phase 4 of the MJO Index.  The forecast OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) tends to indicate some decent upward motion over the area in about 10-14 days.  One item I noted, the MJO is currently displaying a weak signal, and the bulk, looking at the index, is around the area of Octant 4, yet we have a Hurricane in the EPAC (Eastern PACific).  There is noted a small area of upward vertical velocities over this feature, and so with the disagreement in the MJO and OLR modeling, I will be utilizing the 200 mb vertical velocity potential map to see when we get further in toward the GFS “initiation” of the  low, whether or not upward motion is in fact heading for the area.

MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX ECMWF RUN

OLR FORECAST (BLUE INDICATES WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS)

200MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL MAP (GREEN INDICATES UPWARD MOTION, BROWN INDICATES SINKING AIR)

Although NONE of the other Global Models indicate this, given the support at the moment, I will be watching this area throughout the next 7 days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUN 11, 2014…ISSUED 10:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm for the update.Mr storm I am by know means and expert but I got a weird feeling this hurricane season going to turn out totally different than last hurricane season.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I guess we can always count on the GFS to keep us in suspense. More Severe Storms possible for us today.

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