HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
Good day all!
The tropics remain quiet this morning.
Based on analysis of the most current run of the Global Models (06Z), the GFS is still suggesting development near the Yucatan Peninsula, over the Gulf of Honduras, initiating an area of low pressure in about 6 days from now. Albeit the GFS has always had a history of feeding back and creating spurious cyclones, it was the ONLY model, besides the FIM which indicated some sort of development in the BOC at about 12 days out in the period. Although it did drop it for about 3 runs, it resumed “sniffing” out something, to which we had INVEST 90L declared. Over the past 3 days, I have pulled up all previous runs on the GFS, and the model has now been consistent in the past 12 runs in hinting at low pressure developing around the mentioned area. The recent run of the FIM model is currently supporting the GFS in its solution, and has come up with a little stronger signature on the map than yesterday.
Does this mean we will definitely see development? NO. However indications of other factors indicate a very decent probability. The current wind shear forecast maps indicate upper level winds to become more favorable for development around that time in the forecast period, with an upper level anticyclone developing over the GOMEX once and if we have something move into the GOMEX. Zonal shear indicates the “center” of this supposed low should lie within the ZERO Zonal hear line.
Albeit not as strong as previous runs, the NCEP Ensemble Mean Anomaly Departure map for the 500 mb level still indicates a lowering of pressure over the area.
The one parameter left in question is the forecast phase of the MJO. Dynamic model guidance indicates the MJO to hang around Octant, or be in Phase 4 of the MJO Index. The forecast OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) tends to indicate some decent upward motion over the area in about 10-14 days. One item I noted, the MJO is currently displaying a weak signal, and the bulk, looking at the index, is around the area of Octant 4, yet we have a Hurricane in the EPAC (Eastern PACific). There is noted a small area of upward vertical velocities over this feature, and so with the disagreement in the MJO and OLR modeling, I will be utilizing the 200 mb vertical velocity potential map to see when we get further in toward the GFS “initiation” of the low, whether or not upward motion is in fact heading for the area.
Although NONE of the other Global Models indicate this, given the support at the moment, I will be watching this area throughout the next 7 days.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)