HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
Good day all!
The tropics remain quiet this morning, with 3 tropical waves progressing westward. If you look closely, you can pick these out on MIMIC Total Precipitable Water imagery (loop) as cyclonic turning. One approaching 30W, one passing 50W, and one just moving near the Isthmus of Panama.
Upon analysis of Global Models this morning, the GFS is once again indicating the development of a sub-tropical storm, with initial development beginning in approximately 8 days. The GFS tracks this up through the Central GOMEX and toward Louisiana, which is a shift west in previous track. One of my main reasoning’s for classifying this prob. as sub-tropical, is that modeling indicates maximum sustained winds to be displaced to the NE of the center. Bear in mind, this is in the medium to long range forecast, and the GFS has been notorious for beginning systems stronger than they usually turn out to be, if development even occurs. However on another note, remember, albeit the GFS was solid at first on development near the same area to the BOC, drop its solution, then picked back up on a weak low, 2 weeks out, it is obvious it was sniffing out the recent INVEST 90L, which was close to depression status prior to dissipation. Albeit this is the first chance I have had to really perform a full analysis, the GFS has shown consistency in the last 4 runs. In addition to this, we do have a slower, weaker solution from the FIM Model that agrees at the moment, with consistency over the past 48 hours. The MJO is forecast to move into octant 4 however, which would tend not to support development.
In addition, although one output has backed off, we do see some support from the NCEP Ensemble, Multi Model Ensemble models.
Although this may be spurious, I cannot rule this solution out at the moment, until I see if other Global Models are picking this out, albeit only one other model picked out “hinting” at INVEST 90L which was the CMC. The GFS which has seemed to perform the best with wind shear forecasts does show forecast wind shear to relax to a point of around 15 knots when this supposedly enters the GOMEX, and streamlines indicate a northern outflow channel as this forecast low remains on the east side of an upper level trof.
I will continue to monitor this for any changes in the modeling over the next 72 – 96 hours.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)