TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUN 09, 2014…ISSUED 9:35 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/force.html#.U4zx4Hb09hC

TropicalCyclones11

Good day all!

The tropics remain quiet this morning, with 3 tropical waves progressing westward.  If you look closely, you can pick these out on MIMIC Total Precipitable Water imagery (loop) as cyclonic turning.  One approaching 30W, one passing 50W, and one just moving near the Isthmus of Panama.

ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP

MIMIC TPW IMAGERY LOOP

Upon analysis of Global Models this morning, the GFS is once again indicating the development of a sub-tropical storm, with initial development beginning in approximately 8 days.  The GFS tracks this up through the Central GOMEX and toward Louisiana, which is a shift west in previous track.  One of my main reasoning’s for classifying this prob. as sub-tropical, is that modeling indicates maximum sustained winds to be displaced to the NE of the center.   Bear in mind, this is in the medium to long range forecast, and the GFS has been notorious for beginning systems stronger than they usually turn out to be, if development even occurs.  However on another note, remember, albeit the GFS was solid at first on development near the same area to the BOC, drop its solution, then picked back up on a weak low, 2 weeks out, it is obvious it was sniffing out the recent INVEST 90L, which was close to depression status prior to dissipation.  Albeit this is the first chance I have had to really perform a full analysis, the GFS has shown consistency in the last 4 runs.  In addition to this, we do have a slower, weaker solution from the FIM Model that agrees at the moment, with consistency over the past 48 hours.  The MJO is forecast to move into octant 4 however, which would tend not to support development.

GFS 06Z MODEL OUTPUT (CLICK FOR CLEAR GRAPHICS)
GFS SURFACE 180
GFS SURFACE 216
GFS SURFACE 240
FIM MODEL OUTPUT
wind_10m_f300

In addition, although one output has backed off, we do see some support from the NCEP Ensemble, Multi Model Ensemble models.

NCEP / EMC CYCLOGENESIS

Although this  may be spurious, I cannot rule this solution out at the moment, until I see if other Global Models are picking this out, albeit only one other model picked out “hinting” at INVEST 90L which was the CMC.  The GFS which has seemed to perform the best with wind shear forecasts does show forecast wind shear to relax to a point of around 15 knots when this supposedly enters the GOMEX, and streamlines indicate a northern outflow channel as this forecast low remains on the east side of an upper level trof.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS WIND SHEAR
GFS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GFS 200 MB STREAM240

I will continue to monitor this for any changes in the modeling over the next 72 – 96 hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUN 09, 2014…ISSUED 9:35 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Hello mr storm you really go indept with your forecast I like that.
    .

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I see you put in your new address in the contact section. I’ll get something to you in the next couple of weeks or so.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. That would be Mac and me. I will keep checking in on it. We are just coming off a sustained rain event and the ground is starting to dry out, but with rain again forecast this week, a system of any sort could pose flooding problems along the many creeks and streams and canals in the area. I’d rather be prepared for something that does or doesn’t happen than not prepared for something that does. Once again, I am glad you are there for us.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. You’re all over it as always. The EPAC looks interesting too. We had another eight confirmed Tornadoes on the ground yesterday in E Colo…mostly EF0s…nothing major. It should calm down this week. Thanks again Senior Chief!!

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