TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…URGENT SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…JUN 03, 2014…ISSUED 5:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

DONATIONS REQUESTED
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HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/force.html#.U4zx4Hb09hC

TropicalCyclones11

Good day all!

The NHC in Miami has dropped the low chance circle regarding the elongated trof over the GOMEX / Bay of Campeche (BOC) area.  This area is still rather disorganized, and vorticity is mainly in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.  This trof currently has three things working against it at the moment:

1.)  The EPAC system 93E is robbing energy from the trof.
2.)  Wind shear over the area is on the order of 30 – 40 knots
3.)  Dry air noted in water vapor imagery is hindering development.

GOMEX IR4 LOOP IMAGE

GOMEX WATER VAPOR LOOP

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

Based on what I see in my analysis this evening, the trof could remain stationary over the next few days.  The only model that does anything with this, is the GFS, which keeps it meandering around in the BOC and Yucatan Peninsula showing strength waxing and waning from a closed surface low, to an open trof, and appears to dissipate it.

However, the 12Z run of the GFS does indicate for surface pressures to remain a little low, and develops a weak system around the Gulf of Honduras near the early hours of the 9th of this month, and sends it toward the Florida Peninsula.

GFS 159 HOURS
GFS SURFACE 159

GFS 204 HOURS
GFS SURFACE 204
GFS 240 HOURS
GFS SURFACE 240

I cannot rule this out as of yet, as the motion coincides with the forecast lowering of 500 mb anomalies over the same area during the same time frame, eventually lowering over Florida.  Should anything occur, it appears to be a weak, sub-tropical entity, and more of a rainmaker than anything.  Again, this is IF we get development. 

500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY DEPARTURES

The following is the forecast cumulative precipitation for 10 days out from 12Z this morning:

CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION
12zgfsCumulativePrecipUS240

I will be monitoring the area over the next ten days to see if this pans out.

URGENT UPDATE:  The SPC has upgraded a portion of the moderate risk area to a HIGH RISK area

FROM THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE

…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA…WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA…AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING…

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST… …SUMMARY… AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA…NORTHERN MISSOURI…AND INTO ILLINOIS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS…VERY LARGE HAIL…AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)


Based on the updated information, this office is issuing a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) for both the HIGH risk and MODERATE risk outline to caution on the side of safety.

Based on my analysis of UPDATED afternoon information from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, and information contained in the current SPC outlook, the area at greatest risk from current data of the RAP model indicates the strongest tornadoes should occur within the white outline in the following map between 1:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m CDT which may be extended into 7:00 p.m. CDT.  The target area for the strongest tornado threat is in the red circled area, which I have extended into Iowa based on the current severe weather parameters, and may produce activity into the 10:00 p.m. – 1:00 a.m. CDT time frame
torndoprob4pmcdt

Residents within the HIGH and MODERATE risk area should however be aware, overall tornado activity should be prevalent within the SPC significant hatch area.  IF i do not have an update in the a.m., please use the following maps and graphics which are linked to their sites.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

INTELLICAST INTERACTIVE RADAR

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…URGENT SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…JUN 03, 2014…ISSUED 5:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Glad you are getting, “back to normal”. Hope that PT job is good. In your contact page, did you put your new address? So in the next few weeks I can mail you something.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…definitely eyeballing NE Nebraska. They are calling for the possibility of Strong Long Track Tornadoes…right where you pinpointed it. I’ll pass this on to friend and her mom in Elgin, NE.

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