HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
Good day all!
The NHC in Miami has dropped the low chance circle regarding the elongated trof over the GOMEX / Bay of Campeche (BOC) area. This area is still rather disorganized, and vorticity is mainly in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This trof currently has three things working against it at the moment:
1.) The EPAC system 93E is robbing energy from the trof.
2.) Wind shear over the area is on the order of 30 – 40 knots
3.) Dry air noted in water vapor imagery is hindering development.
Based on what I see in my analysis this evening, the trof could remain stationary over the next few days. The only model that does anything with this, is the GFS, which keeps it meandering around in the BOC and Yucatan Peninsula showing strength waxing and waning from a closed surface low, to an open trof, and appears to dissipate it.
However, the 12Z run of the GFS does indicate for surface pressures to remain a little low, and develops a weak system around the Gulf of Honduras near the early hours of the 9th of this month, and sends it toward the Florida Peninsula.
I cannot rule this out as of yet, as the motion coincides with the forecast lowering of 500 mb anomalies over the same area during the same time frame, eventually lowering over Florida. Should anything occur, it appears to be a weak, sub-tropical entity, and more of a rainmaker than anything. Again, this is IF we get development.
The following is the forecast cumulative precipitation for 10 days out from 12Z this morning:
I will be monitoring the area over the next ten days to see if this pans out.
URGENT UPDATE: The SPC has upgraded a portion of the moderate risk area to a HIGH RISK area
FROM THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE
…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA…WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA…AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING…
…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST… …SUMMARY… AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA…NORTHERN MISSOURI…AND INTO ILLINOIS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS…VERY LARGE HAIL…AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)
Based on the updated information, this office is issuing a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) for both the HIGH risk and MODERATE risk outline to caution on the side of safety.
Based on my analysis of UPDATED afternoon information from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, and information contained in the current SPC outlook, the area at greatest risk from current data of the RAP model indicates the strongest tornadoes should occur within the white outline in the following map between 1:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m CDT which may be extended into 7:00 p.m. CDT. The target area for the strongest tornado threat is in the red circled area, which I have extended into Iowa based on the current severe weather parameters, and may produce activity into the 10:00 p.m. – 1:00 a.m. CDT time frame
Residents within the HIGH and MODERATE risk area should however be aware, overall tornado activity should be prevalent within the SPC significant hatch area. IF i do not have an update in the a.m., please use the following maps and graphics which are linked to their sites.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)