SEVERE WEATHER / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 25, 2014…ISSUED 7:15 EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

DONATIONS REQUESTED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good evening everyone!

Severe weather is currently in progress over West & CentralTexas

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Residents within the risk area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements and Warnings.  IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following maps and graphics are linked for you to click on, and will provide you up to date information regarding the severe weather threat today.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST NWS INTERACTIVE DOPPLER RADAR

The SPC has indicated aACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of information as of this evening F5 DATA Severe  Weather software using output from the GFS model (only one working tonight), the greatest probability for hail and any tornado activity should lie within the outlined area during early afternoon until around 4:00 – 6:00 p.m. CDT.
torndoprob

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

The GFS has backed off on its solution of a subtropical storm developing the first week of June.  This would be in response to a shift further west by the NCEP Ensemble of lowering 500 mb pressure heights, which is now forecast to be more prevalent in the extreme EPAC.  One model, the FIM is still hanging on to a weak circulation heading toward Florida during that time period.  With the recent shift of lowering pressures, I am not really concerned about development, albeit the area will be monitored.

500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY DEPARTURES

This will be my final post, until I get cable services in my new address, which I hope to be back, up and running this upcoming weekend.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather, Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 25, 2014…ISSUED 7:15 EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Stay safe down there, dellamom, heard there’s some rough weather in Louisianna.

    • dellamom says:

      Thanks. Yes there is. My office area does not usually flood but the parking lot flooded because the ditches are too full. I’ve been here 8 years and we sometimes get a little bit of water buildup, but that has not happened before. The second wave is coming through now and the lot didn’t completely drain from the first wave. I parked on the high side of the lot because my mamma didn’t raise stupid kids. Mac, I hope your part of our little paradise is safe from the flooding. I drove round trip from Madisonville to Chalmette and back (100 miles) and the wind was terrible.

  2. Mac says:

    Happy Memorial day to all! Remember our fallen…

    Hope your move went well Storm.

  3. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm best of luck with the rest of your move. I see that first E-Pack storm has made it to Cat. IV

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s