SEVERE WEATHER / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 23, 2014..ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

DONATIONS REQUESTED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day all!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has indicated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER A PORTION OF SRN NC INTO SC…AND OVER A PORTION OF SERN NM AND

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

The main threat this afternoon and evening should be hail and damaging straight line winds associated with any severe thunderstorms / supercells.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out within the 2% coverage area.  Based on analysis of severe weather forecast parameters and indices using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the best prob. for severe weather is within the SPC outlines, however I have extended the area over South Carolina, slightly.
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Residents within the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements and Warnings. 
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following maps and graphics are linked for you to click on, and will provide you up to date information regarding the severe weather threat today.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST NWS INTERACTIVE DOPPLER RADAR

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Two tropical waves were noted this morning in the TAFB Surface Analysis map from 06Z.  One was located just off the coast of Africa near 19W, and the second in the Atlantic near 47W.

06Z TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP

The GFS has once again backed off on strength with a low it has been “developing” over the past 5 days, with the origin near the Nicaragua / Panama area of the SW Caribbean.  This waxing and waning is not uncommon for the GFS model, especially near the start of the hurricane season.  Again, this solution is not gospel, especially being almost 2 weeks into the forecast period.  However, one cannot ignore the persistence displayed as far as cyclogenesis, nor the factor of some “enhancing” signs, such as forecast low wind shear, upper level outflow over and near the area, the continued forecast of lowering pressures from the extreme EPAC, across the Isthmus of Panama, and into the SW Caribbean, and a forecast NEUTRAL to VERY WEAK upward motion phase of the MJO.  The solution presented by the GFS could in fact be a feedback related issue, as the GFS is notorious for this, especially early on in the season.  The GFS has gained some weak support at the moment, with the FIM Model output indicating some weak cyclonic turning in the 10m wind field during the same time frame (around June 3rd).

GFS 240 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST
GFS SURFACE 240
GFS 276 HOUR SURFACE
GFS SURFACE 276
GFS 288 HOUR SURFACE
GFS SURFACE 288

GFS 900 MB WINDS
GFS 900MB WIND

FIM MODEL 252 HOUR FORECAST

500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES (CLASSIC SITUATIONAL DEVELOPMENT SETUP)

Again, I will be comparing all models as they fall within their respective forecast time frames.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 23, 2014..ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Well…we aren’t getting hit by Tornadoes and Hail today. Who needs that?? We have flooding rains to comfort us…could go through Sunday…sure sign of a returning El Nino if you ask me…you would know much better. LT…looks like you are reeling in our mess. Stay safe up there…looks like you guys got hit pretty good…an EF3 up around Albany? Wheesh…crazy times. Hope you miss all the big stuff LT.

    I hope everyone has a very happy and safe Memorial Day Weekend. I know all of Storms gang knows the true meaning of this day. God Bless our Fallen Soldiers. Thank you Storm and all of you that have served and are currently serving our Country. My gratitude and thanks go out to each and everyone of you. Whether it be an Army Ranger or a Firefighter…an Officer or an EMT…God Bless all of You.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I am getting scattered showers up here, but so far I have missed the heavier cells. Some are quite strong just to my North, and South. We’ll see. If it’s clear by you, you may want to check out the meteor shower that will be occurring tonight after midnight. Could be quite a show.

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