Good day all!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has indicated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms from the MID ATLANTIC ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO FRONT RANGE…
The main threat this afternoon and evening should be hail and damaging straight line winds associated with any severe thunderstorms / supercells.
Based on analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, I utilized the output from the NAM – WRF model, as the outline matches the SPC slight risk area outline. Based on analysis of certain forecast indices and parameters, the best probability for tornadic activity lies within the white outlined area, with the greatest threat being within the red outlines. The threat decreases somewhere near 7:00 – 8:00 p.m. CDT as shown in the second outlined map. SBCAPE values on order of 3000 – 3500 j/kg, with isolated 4000 j/kg are expected over the outlined areas. SPC also has a portion of the Mid Atlantic area outlined, and I believe any tornadic activity should occur closer to early evening hours.
Residents within the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements and Warnings. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following maps and graphics are linked for you to click on, and will provide you up to date information regarding the severe weather threat today.
The SPC has indicated pretty much a risk of severe weather up through Saturday:
I know this is sounding old, however the current run of the *GFS is back with development of a possible sub-tropical system near Nicaragua around June 2 – June 3. *(Note…I keep referring to the GFS, as it is the only model that goes out this far in the forecast period).
Albeit the model keeps waxing and waning on strength, it has been persistent now for the past 4 days at “hinting” at something in the SW Caribbean. I would rule this out as feedback, which the GFS has been known for, however we still have the persistence in the modeling from the NOAA ESRL, NCEP ENSEMBLE indicating 500 mb pressure falls around the area during this time in the forecast period.
The GFS has also been consistent in indicating low wind shear, along with upper level outflow at the 200 mb level. I’ll have better information once the forecast time for this falls into the 240 hour range, when the ECMWF “should” pick up on the solution.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)