SEVERE WEATHER / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 21, 2014…ISSUED 10:55 A.M. EDT… WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day all!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has indicated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms from the MID ATLANTIC ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO FRONT RANGE…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

The main threat this afternoon and evening should be hail and damaging straight line winds associated with any severe thunderstorms / supercells.

Based on analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, I utilized the output from the NAM – WRF model, as the outline matches the SPC slight risk area outline.  Based on analysis of certain forecast indices and parameters, the best probability for tornadic activity lies within the white outlined area, with the greatest threat being within the red outlines.  The threat decreases somewhere near 7:00 – 8:00 p.m. CDT as shown in the second outlined map.  SBCAPE values on order of 3000 – 3500 j/kg, with isolated 4000 j/kg are expected over the outlined areas.  SPC also has a portion of the Mid Atlantic area outlined, and I believe any tornadic activity should occur closer to early evening hours.
torndoprob4pmcdt

torndoprob7pmcdt

Residents within the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements and Warnings.  IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following maps and graphics are linked for you to click on, and will provide you up to date information regarding the severe weather threat today.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST NWS INTERACTIVE DOPPLER RADAR

The SPC has indicated pretty much a risk of severe weather up through Saturday:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

I know this is sounding old, however the current run of the *GFS is back with development of a possible sub-tropical system near Nicaragua around June 2 – June 3.  *(Note…I keep referring to the GFS, as it is the only model that goes out this far in the forecast period).

GFS SURFACE MAPS 324, 336, AND 384 HOUR FORECAST
GFS SURFACE
GFS SURFACE 336
GFS SURFACE 384
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS WIND SHEAR
GFS 200 MB STREAMLINES (SHOWING OUTFLOW)
GFS 200 MB STREAM

Albeit the model keeps waxing and waning on strength, it has been persistent now for the past 4 days at “hinting” at something in the SW Caribbean.  I would rule this out as feedback, which the GFS has been known for, however we still have the persistence in the modeling from the NOAA ESRL, NCEP ENSEMBLE indicating 500 mb pressure falls around the area during this time in the forecast period.

ERSL NCEP ENSEMBLE 500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURES

The GFS has also been consistent in indicating low wind shear, along with upper level outflow at the 200 mb level.  I’ll have better information once the forecast time for this falls into the 240 hour range, when the ECMWF “should” pick up on the solution.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 21, 2014…ISSUED 10:55 A.M. EDT… WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Hope you are OK Monty, just heard on the news that the Denver area was pounded by hail last night.

    • Monty says:

      Yeah…not to mention seven Tornado touchdowns. No damage from twisters though. KDEN got hit and many planes damages. We could see a repeat performance today. However…it doesn’t look as severe as yesterday.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. So far the showers are being “shunted” to my SW–Moving NW to SE. There should be a more eastward component to the showers later on tonight and tomorrow.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…gearing up for a big day.

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