TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 19, 2014…ISSUED 11:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

A Tropical Wave continues to move west, approaching 58W – 60W.  The southern portion of the axis is now interacting with the South American coast.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
ir2-lTROPICAL WAVE

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IR4

The long range GFS forecast has been trending toward tropical development over the past 96 hours by the first of next month, however during this mornings 06z run, has backed off quite a bit as far as developing a tropical storm.  I will continue to analyze further runs, and begin to compare these runs with other global models, once they become part of the specified time frame.  Does this mean because the GFS continues to “hunt” around in that area, that development is for certain?  No, not by any means.  However, one must take into account, with the GFS having performed well with cyclogenesis during the previous 3 hurricane seasons, with the fluctuation in area and intensity, it may be “sniffing” something out.  As a forecaster, I have to take into account other prevalent limited parameters at the moment.

GFS 336 HOUR FORECAST
GFS SURFACE
GFS 336 HOUR WIND SHEAR
GFS WIND SHEAR

Upon completion of my analysis this morning, it does appear the EPAC Monsoon trof noses in over the area from near Honduras / Nicaragua, to north of Panama.

Sea Surface Temperatures and TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) have been slowly on the increase over the area.

SST AND TCHP MAPS

The current wind shear forecast  as indicated by the GFS (The GFS tends to be the most accurate regarding wind shear forecasts in the Tropics), shows wind shear values during that time (2 weeks out), to be around only 10 – 15 knots.

The one item that has been very consistent over the past 96 hours, is the 500 mb mean anomaly departure forecast, which indicates pressure height rises over the central, North American Continent, with lowering pressures over the Isthmus of Panama and a portion of the Western Caribbean.  This type of setup is a classic situational development setup.

500 MB MEAN ANOMALY DEPARTURES

These certain parameters which have been addressed, are all conducive for tropical development in the extreme Western Caribbean Sea.

Current SST Anomalies indicate a warming of the Equatorial Pacific, and may indicate the beginning of the forecast El Nino.  However, with a reversal and weakening of the trade winds, the process has slowed for the time being.

PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES

I do expect a slight warming in the Tropical Atlantic MDR over the next week, should the current NAO forecast hold true.

GFS ENSEMBLE NAO FORECAST
GFS NAO

ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST
ECMWF NAO

I will continue to monitor everything as time allows and keep you posted on any changes.

For those who may have forgotten, here is the NEW Saffir – Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane’s sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures. In the western North Pacific, the term “super typhoon” is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph.

 

Category Sustained Winds Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
1 74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
2 96-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3
(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 19, 2014…ISSUED 11:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…echoing Dellamom. Thank you so much. I guess if we Enhanced the Fujita Scale and NWS put more info in our Severe WX Warnings…why leave the Saffir-Simpson scale out of the picture…HA. Anyway’s I’ll be passing this or your next synopsis on to Siobhain (WOAI/KMOL News 4 “Weather Bunny” in SAT). I hope she likes it and gets on board. I would love to read the conversation between you two!!

  2. dellamom says:

    It’s not June yet!!! Seriously, thank you Storm for taking time from your pressing personal issues to give us this concise, but in-depth report. I deeply appreciate your expertise and compassion.

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