TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 18, 2014…ISSUED 5:55 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good evening!

The first Tropical Wave of the Atlantic season has been observed.  The wave was located near 15N;50W to 3N;51W moving WNW NEAR 15 KT over the past 24 hours.  Westerly wind shear has not allowed for any convection, and observation of satellite loop imagery indicates the wave axis to be located near the approximate position:

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
vis-lWAVE

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IR4

The long range GFS forecast has been trending toward tropical development over the past 72 hours by the first of next month, waxing and waning on strength and location, now indicating development in the Gulf of Honduras.  The 12Z run from today has been the most bullish out of all the runs, indicating a Tropical Storm, moving through the “goalpost” at the end of the 12Z run. 

GFS 360 HOUR FORECAST MAP
GFS SURFACE
This could be a feedback issue, which the GFS is notorious for, however during the past 3 hurricane seasons, the GFS has outperformed the other global models in forecasting cyclogenesis from June through the 1st to 2nd week of August.  I am not willing to totally disregard this as of yet, as some forecast conditions do indicate limited support of this solution at the moment.  These are listed, with graphics following in order:

1.) Lowering of 500 mb height anomalies
2.) Forecast wind shear of 10 – 15 knots
3.) SST’s of 27+ C
4.) Improving TCHP
5.) Weak forecast upward motion of the MJO

500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
z500nanom_f360_usbg

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS WIND SHEAR

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL (TCHP)

MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION OLR FORECAST

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 18, 2014…ISSUED 5:55 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Butts says:

    Hi Storm, thanks for having the capacity to post weather and provide a important service to the public. If you need to stop and foucus all your energy on the job search. We understand and 100 % support you during this stressfull time. You deserve and shall seek what you need to be happy and financially sucure.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. I dunno, it’s a bit early isn’t it? Well, I know you’ll keep on top of it. Any luck with the job situation, and your move?

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    What??? It isn’t June yet…..So the fun begins. Supposedly the East Coast is more at risk this year? Isn’t that what they usually say? Just seems like it anyways. Thanks for all you do Storm! Much appreciated! 🙂

  4. Monty says:

    KDVR…sorry…hate it when this thing tries to read my mind.

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Here we go again…glad we have you to put some JB Weld on what looks to be another whackadoo hurricane season. EPAC already has action as well…wow…considering potential Summer setup. Funny thing happened when in SAT. I saw a former school mate on TV as an on camera Met. Siobhain Anders…used to go to school with her in SAT. She now Anchors the evening Met position on WOAI/KMOL…you guys can Google her. Even funnier…A colleague of hers…Jennifer Broome…is now an on camera Met at KERR Fox 31 in DEN…small world. I am staying in touch with Siobhain…so cool!!!

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