The first Tropical Wave of the Atlantic season has been observed. The wave was located near 15N;50W to 3N;51W moving WNW NEAR 15 KT over the past 24 hours. Westerly wind shear has not allowed for any convection, and observation of satellite loop imagery indicates the wave axis to be located near the approximate position:
The long range GFS forecast has been trending toward tropical development over the past 72 hours by the first of next month, waxing and waning on strength and location, now indicating development in the Gulf of Honduras. The 12Z run from today has been the most bullish out of all the runs, indicating a Tropical Storm, moving through the “goalpost” at the end of the 12Z run.
GFS 360 HOUR FORECAST MAP
This could be a feedback issue, which the GFS is notorious for, however during the past 3 hurricane seasons, the GFS has outperformed the other global models in forecasting cyclogenesis from June through the 1st to 2nd week of August. I am not willing to totally disregard this as of yet, as some forecast conditions do indicate limited support of this solution at the moment. These are listed, with graphics following in order:
1.) Lowering of 500 mb height anomalies
2.) Forecast wind shear of 10 – 15 knots
3.) SST’s of 27+ C
4.) Improving TCHP
5.) Weak forecast upward motion of the MJO
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)