SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…STRONG, LONG TRACKED TORNADOES POSSIBLE…ISSUED MAY 11, 2014…10:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER CENTER

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY…

There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms surrounding the moderate risk FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY…

SPC SEVERE WEATHER SUMMARY:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF IOWA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

Based on my analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, utilizing output from the RAP, GFS, and NAM – WRF models, the NAM – WRF stands out better in accordance with the SPC products…however a blend of these three models despite very subtle differences appears to be accurate as well.

The analysis this morning indicates forecast severe weather indices in line with SPC parameters also matching the latest run of the SPC SREF model, and 12Z soundings from around the risk areas.  The following maps, based on these data tend to indicate the best significant probability for tornadoes to occur within the outlined areas, in which supercells capable of producing  EF2 – EF3 Tornadoes, and possibly some isolated EF4 – EF5 COULD initiate at approximately 4:00 p.m. CDT and into the early evening hours.  This activity as noted in the SPC discussion, will depend on timing, and extent of ample moisture to initiate the supercells.

LISTED SELECT INDICES (SIGTOR AREA)

LIFTED INDEX = -6 to -8
SWEAT INDEX = 400 – 525
EHI = 3 to 6
SRH = 250 – 400+
SBCAPE = 2000 – 3000 (TORNADO THREAT AREA) 2500 – 3500 (MODERATE RISK AREA / SOUTH SLIGHT RISK AREA)

4:00 P.M. CDT SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT
f5 data.nam tornado4pm

7:00 P.M. CDT
f5 data.nam tornado7pm

SREF SIGTOR PARAMETER >3 (PROB)
SREF_prob_sigtor_3__f018

Albeit these areas are outlined I am not willing to rule out tornadic activity in the entire moderate risk area, and possibly into Oklahoma (as a precautionary measure).  I believe at the moment, based on analysis, the primary threat of tornadoes will lie in the 30% hail outline, but more prominent within the 45% / hatched hail area.

The GREATEST probability for the occurrence of severe thunderstorms should lie within both risk areas, within the hatched area of the hail probability map.

For the portion of Nebraska and Iowa that may be under the gun, this has the potential to be a DANGEROUS situation.  PLEASE REVIEW YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLANS…IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED…PLEASE SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER.

The following maps and graphics are linked for you to receive current severe weather information and NWS Statements and Warnings.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR STATE FOR NWS STATEMENTS)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Please stay safe and have a blessed day.

Happy Mothers Day to all the Moms…They are a significant part in our lives!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…STRONG, LONG TRACKED TORNADOES POSSIBLE…ISSUED MAY 11, 2014…10:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Incredible, Monty. Storm, looks like there is a non-tropical low NW of Puerto Rico. I think this is the system that one of the models said may develop into a “hybrid” system. Do you think it may?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…Echo LT…stay safe everyone. I’ll pass this on. Have friends/Boss Turkey hunting in Monroe, WI…pretty close to your critical area. For our unfortunate asses in DEN…10-20 inches of snow has fallen in higher passes West of DEN. Northern areas has seen up to 14 inches. I live in SW Suburbs of DEN and have picked up about an inch. It’s picking up in intensity and forecasters are still calling for 5-10 inches in my neck of the woods. Models are still all over the place with acc totals…will keep you guys posted. Happy Mothers Day everyone!!! 🙂

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, hope you are feeling better and better. And that everybody out there is safe.

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