SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK…PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED 9:30 P.M. EDT…MAY 10, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good evening all!

From the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK:

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH MANY TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

The SPC has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of IA…ERN NEB…NW MO AND KS…

There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of the SRN PLAINS…CNTRL PLAINS….MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of forecast severe weather indices from the NAM – WRF model F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, preliminary indications are for the most likely chance of some strong, long tracked tornadoes to occur within the outlined areas, approximately from 4:00 p.m. to beyond 7:00 p.m. CDT.
f5 data.nam tornado4pm

f5 data.nam tornado7pm

Forecast indices this evening agree with the SPC text, in that SBCAPE values should be up around 3000 j/kg, with some small, isolated areas approaching 4000 j/kg.  This indicates a very unstable atmosphere.  Significant Tornado Parameter values in these areas are forecast to range between 3 to 8.  Albeit these areas are outlined, DO NOT FOCUS mainly on these areas, as tornadic activity will be probable over most of the moderate risk area, lying within the SPC hatched area in the probability map.

As it stands at the moment, this has the potential to become a DANGEROUS and DEADLY situation!

I am going to try and have an update in the morning before church.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK…PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED 9:30 P.M. EDT…MAY 10, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Well Storm, I see they can’t keep a good sailor down! and Monty, good luck out there, another winter storm–that IS crazy!

  2. Jack LeBlanc says:

    Hi Mr. Walsh,
    I am sending out 40 emails about this system, and will be tracking all day long and posting on FB/Twitter as the events occur. Thank You for the info.
    Jack

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…hope all is well Senior Chief!! Will pass this to gang in MAF/STL/DFW/SJT. Damn Storm…I’ve got a major Winter Storm on my hands in DEN/BOU and entire CWA. Models are showing anywhere from 10 to 24 inch snow acc along foothills/mountains. Down where I am…it all depends on exact track…FROPA and exactly how fast upslope/ridging sets up…hope I got that right. Anyways…looking at 4 to 12 inch acc in DEN urban corridor. YUCK…this is MAY for crying out loud!!. I’ll keep you guys updated on latest. God Bless!!

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