Good evening all!
From the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK:
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH MANY TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
The SPC has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of IA…ERN NEB…NW MO AND KS…
There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of the SRN PLAINS…CNTRL PLAINS….MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…
Based on analysis of forecast severe weather indices from the NAM – WRF model F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, preliminary indications are for the most likely chance of some strong, long tracked tornadoes to occur within the outlined areas, approximately from 4:00 p.m. to beyond 7:00 p.m. CDT.
Forecast indices this evening agree with the SPC text, in that SBCAPE values should be up around 3000 j/kg, with some small, isolated areas approaching 4000 j/kg. This indicates a very unstable atmosphere. Significant Tornado Parameter values in these areas are forecast to range between 3 to 8. Albeit these areas are outlined, DO NOT FOCUS mainly on these areas, as tornadic activity will be probable over most of the moderate risk area, lying within the SPC hatched area in the probability map.
As it stands at the moment, this has the potential to become a DANGEROUS and DEADLY situation!
I am going to try and have an update in the morning before church.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)