PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC…SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS REVISION…ISSUED 3:35 P.M. EDT…APR. 29, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good afternoon everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND AL…

There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the GREAT LAKES SWD TO CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST AND EWD TO THE CAROLINAS AND VA…

SPC SUMMARY…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES…A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG…VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Pubic Severe Weather Outlook for today and tonight:

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

…Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Gulf Coast and southeast US today and tonight…

* LOCATIONS…
Alabama
Mississippi

* HAZARDS…
Several tornadoes
Scattered damaging winds
Scattered large hail

* SUMMARY…
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will affect portions of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into central and eastern Gulf States this afternoon into tonight. Several tornadoes, large hail and straight line damaging winds appear likely.

Preparedness actions…
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. 

..Guyer/Mead.. 04/29/2014

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

Analysis this morning of the 12Z Soundings from around the moderate risk area were uneventful, in only showing very unstable conditions over SW LA.

Based on my analysis of forecast Severe Weather indices and parameters from F5 DATA Software, utilizing a blend of the 12Z NAM – WRF, and 06Z GFS, along with analysis of the SPC SREF model run, at the moment, I do not believe we will see such a widespread outbreak as we’ve seen over the past 2 days.  HOWEVER, this is all going to be contingent on any significant daytime heating that may occur between now and approximately 1:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT.  Satellite imagery did indicate a break in the heavy convection to the west of the risk area this morning, which should allow for some destabilization of the atmosphere, albeit a thin cloud deck is noted.  Again, the setup today is similar in that severe weather over the area has cleared out, but ample moisture is forecast to return by this afternoon, with dew points reaching 65F as far north as the AL / TN border area. IF SUFFICIENT heating occurs, the situation COULD change to more of an outbreak type as we saw yesterday.  I intend to have another look at things, as the models were very slow to update this morning, and I want to analyze parameters from the 12Z GFS and possibly ECMWF runs.

GOES SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on reanalysis this afternoon with the blend of the GFS and NAM – WRF, the following areas should see the greatest probability for Severe Thunderstorms today, anytime after 1:00 p.m. CDT, most likely closer to 4:00 p.m. CDT.  This is a revision from this mornings map:
f5 gfs.day1sweat5pm

The best probability for tornadic activity should lie within the hatched, as well as the moderate risk area in the SPC Outlook Maps, with the best chance in those areas outlined in blue on the following map, based on current updated information:
day1probotlk_1630_torn

Some isolated tornadoes could become strong and long tracked, again depending on how much the atmosphere destabilizes between now and 7:00 p.m. CDT

Residents within the MODERATE risk area and within the hatched areas should closely monitor this situation, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio along with Local NWS statements and warnings.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOU…TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN SEEKING SHELTER!

The following graphics are linked so you may click them for up to date information regarding this severe weather event.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

PLEASE STAY ALERT AND STAY SAFE!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC…SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS REVISION…ISSUED 3:35 P.M. EDT…APR. 29, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like NC is having a little outbreak of their own!!

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