Good afternoon everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND AL…
There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the GREAT LAKES SWD TO CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST AND EWD TO THE CAROLINAS AND VA…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES…A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG…VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Pubic Severe Weather Outlook for today and tonight:
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
…Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Gulf Coast and southeast US today and tonight…
Scattered damaging winds
Scattered large hail
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will affect portions of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into central and eastern Gulf States this afternoon into tonight. Several tornadoes, large hail and straight line damaging winds appear likely.
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
Analysis this morning of the 12Z Soundings from around the moderate risk area were uneventful, in only showing very unstable conditions over SW LA.
Based on my analysis of forecast Severe Weather indices and parameters from F5 DATA Software, utilizing a blend of the 12Z NAM – WRF, and 06Z GFS, along with analysis of the SPC SREF model run, at the moment, I do not believe we will see such a widespread outbreak as we’ve seen over the past 2 days. HOWEVER, this is all going to be contingent on any significant daytime heating that may occur between now and approximately 1:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT. Satellite imagery did indicate a break in the heavy convection to the west of the risk area this morning, which should allow for some destabilization of the atmosphere, albeit a thin cloud deck is noted. Again, the setup today is similar in that severe weather over the area has cleared out, but ample moisture is forecast to return by this afternoon, with dew points reaching 65F as far north as the AL / TN border area. IF SUFFICIENT heating occurs, the situation COULD change to more of an outbreak type as we saw yesterday. I intend to have another look at things, as the models were very slow to update this morning, and I want to analyze parameters from the 12Z GFS and possibly ECMWF runs.
Based on reanalysis this afternoon with the blend of the GFS and NAM – WRF, the following areas should see the greatest probability for Severe Thunderstorms today, anytime after 1:00 p.m. CDT, most likely closer to 4:00 p.m. CDT. This is a revision from this mornings map:
The best probability for tornadic activity should lie within the hatched, as well as the moderate risk area in the SPC Outlook Maps, with the best chance in those areas outlined in blue on the following map, based on current updated information:
Some isolated tornadoes could become strong and long tracked, again depending on how much the atmosphere destabilizes between now and 7:00 p.m. CDT
Residents within the MODERATE risk area and within the hatched areas should closely monitor this situation, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio along with Local NWS statements and warnings.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOU…TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN SEEKING SHELTER!
The following graphics are linked so you may click them for up to date information regarding this severe weather event.
PLEASE STAY ALERT AND STAY SAFE!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS