Good afternoon everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of WRN AND MIDDLE TN…NRN AND CNTRL MS…NWRN AL…AND FAR NERN LA…
There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from parts of the MID MS AND OH VALLEYS SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES…AND EWD TO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS…
FROM THE SPC OUTLOOK:
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT
MON APR 28 2014
…Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and tonight…
* LOCATIONS… Northern and central Mississippi
Western and middle Tennessee
Far northeast Louisiana
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
Scattered damaging winds
* SUMMARY… Widespread severe storms — including strong tornadoes, damaging winds and very large hail — are expected Monday and Monday night over parts of the eastern United States bounded by an area from roughly the Mississippi valley on the west, the Appalachians on the east…the midwest states on the north, and the Gulf of Mexico on the south. The greatest risk is forecast from southern Kentucky and Tennessee south into Mississippi and Alabama.
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
As per analysis of the SPC outlook, and severe weather forecast parameters and indices from F5 DATA Software, utilizing early morning output from the GFS, NAM – WRF, and RAP modeling, the greatest probabilities area of the most severe weather occurring today SHOULD lie within the hatched areas on the SPC graphics.
Analysis further indicates tornadic activity SHOULD lie within the SIGNIFICANT hatched area in the SPC Tornado Probability Graphic. Based on the output in the F5 DATA Software, the highest probabilities at the moment lie within the light blue outlines on the following map, with another probability shifting to the darker blue area early this evening over a portion of Alabama.
This may be likened to yesterday, where severe weather occurred and then passed, with severe weather regenerating over AR last night. This should occur over MS and the portion of TN outlined in the hatched area, and may initiate approximately between 4:00 pm. to 7:00 p.m. CDT. Initiation could occur as early as 3:00 p.m. CDT.
Residents within the MODERATE risk and hatched areas should note, tornadic activity could produce tornadoes of at least EF3 strength, however an isolated event could produce a stronger tornado or so. I pose this as, the latest run of the GFS output is from 06Z, and the 12Z update could show a different solution. As of this synopsis, my forecast is a blend of the 3 models mentioned. The forecast Isnetropic Surface and some other parameters do indicate enough wind shear, lift, and mixing ratio to sustain tornado activity, maybe some long tracked, in the current SPC products and in my outlined areas. As it stands at the moment, this is the best PROBABILITY SYNOPSIS at the current time.
Residents within the MODERATE risk area and within the hatched areas should closely monitor this situation, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio along with Local NWS statements and warnings.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOU…TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN SEEKING SHELTER!
I will try to look at some updated info this afternoon sometime, but cannot promise when. The following graphics are linked so you may click them for up to date information regarding this severe weather event.
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY
PLEASE STAY ALERT AND STAY SAFE!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)