SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ANOTHER SEVERE EVENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…APR. 28, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good afternoon everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of WRN AND MIDDLE TN…NRN AND CNTRL MS…NWRN AL…AND FAR NERN LA…

There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from parts of the MID MS AND OH VALLEYS SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES…AND EWD TO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS…

FROM THE SPC OUTLOOK:

…SUMMARY…
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT
MON APR 28 2014
…Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and tonight…

* LOCATIONS… Northern and central Mississippi
Northwest Alabama
Western and middle Tennessee
Far northeast Louisiana

* HAZARDS…
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
Scattered damaging winds

* SUMMARY… Widespread severe storms — including strong tornadoes, damaging winds and very large hail — are expected Monday and Monday night over parts of the eastern United States bounded by an area from roughly the Mississippi valley on the west, the Appalachians on the east…the midwest states on the north, and the Gulf of Mexico on the south. The greatest risk is forecast from southern Kentucky and Tennessee south into Mississippi and Alabama.

Preparedness actions…
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&& ..
Mead/Goss.. 04/28/2014

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

As per analysis of the SPC outlook, and severe weather forecast parameters and indices from F5 DATA Software, utilizing early morning output from the GFS, NAM – WRF, and RAP modeling, the greatest probabilities area of the most severe weather occurring today SHOULD lie within the hatched areas on the SPC graphics.

Analysis further indicates tornadic activity SHOULD lie within the SIGNIFICANT hatched area in the SPC Tornado Probability Graphic.  Based on the output in the F5 DATA Software, the highest probabilities at the moment lie within the light blue outlines on the following map, with another probability shifting to the darker blue area early this evening over a portion of Alabama.
day1probotlk_1300_torn

This may be likened to yesterday, where severe weather occurred and then passed, with severe weather regenerating over AR last night.  This should occur over MS and the portion of TN outlined in the hatched area, and may initiate approximately between 4:00 pm. to 7:00 p.m. CDT.  Initiation could occur as early as 3:00 p.m. CDT.

Residents within the MODERATE risk and hatched areas should note, tornadic activity could produce tornadoes of at least EF3 strength, however an isolated event could produce a stronger tornado or so.   I pose this as, the latest run of the GFS output is from 06Z, and the 12Z update could show a different solution.  As of this synopsis, my forecast is a blend of the 3 models mentioned.  The forecast Isnetropic Surface and some other parameters do indicate enough wind shear, lift, and mixing ratio to sustain tornado activity, maybe some long tracked, in the current SPC products and in my outlined areas.  As it stands at the moment, this is the best PROBABILITY SYNOPSIS at the current time.

Residents within the MODERATE risk area and within the hatched areas should closely monitor this situation, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio along with Local NWS statements and warnings.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOU…TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN SEEKING SHELTER!

I will try to look at some updated info this afternoon sometime, but cannot promise when.  The following graphics are linked so you may click them for up to date information regarding this severe weather event.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

PLEASE STAY ALERT AND STAY SAFE!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ANOTHER SEVERE EVENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…APR. 28, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Boy, if I was in a “moderate risk” area, I’d considerate a high risk, myself.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…have some of the gang in this area…will pass it on. God help the people in Little Rock and surrounding areas. You never want to hear that kind of news.

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