SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FORECAST FOR SUN. / MON…ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…APR. 26, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norma, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN PLAINS…

From SPC:
...SUMMARY…
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS (LINKED)

Analysis this morning of the NAM-WRF and GFS output from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, the current forecast SWEAT, SBCAPE, MLCAPE, LI, TOTALS TOTALS, DEEP LAYER SHEAR, SHOWALTER INDICES, and ISENTROPIC SURFACE Data, pretty much outlines what the SPC has in today’s outlook, with the main threat being large to significant hail, and damaging straight line wind.  One exception however, based on my analysis this morning is, I will not rule out a chance for an isolated tornado area for a portion of Kansas this afternoon.  The following F5 DATA Maps are outlined to indicate, based on the model output, where the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms SHOULD occur, and where the greatest tornado threat may occur.  Then Severe Weather Threat (hence SWEAT) is denoted by the index values of 300+.  Time stamps are at the bottom left in the maps

NAM OUTPUT
f5 data.nam sweat.sat4pm

f5 data.nam sweat.sat7pm

f5 data.nam sweat.sat10pm

NAM TORNADO PROBABILITY AREAS
f5 data.nam tornado7pm

f5 data.nam tornado10pm

GFS SWEAT OUTPUT
f5 gfs.satsweat4pm

f5 gfs.satsweat7pm

f5 data.nam sweat.sat10pm

Residents within the slight risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Office Statements and Warnings for severe weather that may occur in your area.  ALL of the graphics to follow are linked…just click on them for the latest information regarding today’s severe weather.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

The SPC is still forecasting a SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK for SUN and MON, with Severe Weather continuing into Tuesday.

The SPC has issued a MODERATE risk for Severe Thunderstorms in both the Day 2 and Day 3 Convective Outlooks…click on the outlook maps for the linked outlook discussion regarding this outbreak:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

…SUMMARY…
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS CENTERED FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

…SUMMARY…
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

I will try to be available tomorrow after church to provide an update for the severe weather for Sunday.  It appears to initiate earlier in the afternoon around 1: 00 p.m. CST.

This outbreak this the potential to produce EF3 – EF5 Tornadoes, and has the potential to become a dangerous situation.

SPC DAY 4 – DAY 8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FORECAST FOR SUN. / MON…ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…APR. 26, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Well, looking at the Sunday morning radar, looks what Storm indicated would happen, is happening in the South and Mid-West. The RADAR is “Popping” now. Those folks out there have got to be on their guard.

  2. Monty says:

    By the way Storm…passed your synopsis on to all the gang in harms way…can’t thank you enough!!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…blew off chase. Things are going to fire up too late and the large hail risk way outweighs the Tornado threat. Will hook up with a team out of DEN…plenty of time to chase. Thanks again for your explanation of the dry line…didn’t know it was quite that complex. Thanks again Storm!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. So far, so good. As of about 4:30pm EDT. no big storms out there in the Mid-West….YET!

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