SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE STILL FORECAST BY SPC…ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…APR. 25, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norma, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF VA/NC…

 

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS (LINKED)

Based on analysis this morning of information provided in the Day 1 Outlook, and forecast Severe Weather Indices, the main threat today appears to be Hail and Damaging Thunderstorm winds.  Albeit forecast indices from this morning do not denote tornadic activity, SPC hold a 5% risk over a portion of the area, so tornadoes may not be ruled out in some isolated surface based rotating cells.

The following outline indicates where the most probable chance for severe weather should occur this afternoon into early evening:

SWEAT (SEVERE WEATHER THREAT) 5:00 P.M. EDT
f5 gfs.day1sweat5pm

SWEAT 8:00 P.M. EDT
f5 gfs.day1sweat8pm

I am not expecting anything very significant from today’s event based on weakening parameters as the day wears on.  Residents within the slight risk area however should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Office Statements and Warnings for severe weather that may occur in your area.  ALL of the graphics to follow are linked..just click on them for the latest information regarding today’s severe weather.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

We have a full plate as far as severe weather is concerned…not only for the weekend, but including MON / TUE of next week.  I am going to break this down for the weekend (briefly) for now, and will try to have a more in depth synopsis by taking each day as Day 1 as it becomes applicable and posting numerous Severe Weather indices such as SBCAPE, MLCAPE, SWEAT INDEX, TOTALS TOTALS INDEX, LIFTED INDEX, EHI, SHOWALTER INDEX, CRAVEN BROOKS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE INDEX, etc.

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS regarding the Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of information contained in the SPC Outlook, and thorough analysis of various forecast severe weather indices through F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, the GFS and NAM – WRF models are in agreement of a narrow corridor of some significant severe weather within the slight risk area on Saturday.  The onset of this event seems to initiate during maximum daytime heating, and as the dryline advances toward the east.  This portion of the synopsis is a preliminary forecast in that it is based on utilizing just 3 severe weather parameters at the moment.  The actual forecast tomorrow will be based on a more complete analysis of at least 8 – 10 various forecast indices.  The following maps outline this corridor, to which the stronger SWEAT values indicate a greater potential for tornadic activity.  At the moment, an isolated strong tornado, possibly long track cannot be ruled out in the highest SWEAT value area, albeit severe hail and damaging straight line winds may be the greatest threat.

GFS OUTPUT
f5 gfs.satsweat4pm

f5 gfs.satsweat7pm

NAM – WRF OUTPUT
f5 data.nam sweat.sat4pm

f5 data.nam sweat.sat7pm

The SPC has issued a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms FOR THE ARKLATEX AREA…

There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST…in the Day 3 Outlook

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on the outlook text, and analysis of forecast severe weather indices and parameters from F5 DATA Software, it appears the SPC is currently leaning toward the NAM – WRF solution…this is based on my analysis of the GFS being too far south and not as extensive as shown in the SPC Outlook.

Again, this is a preliminary synopsis, however based on analysis, it appears a significant severe weather event may be in store on Sunday.  Large damaging Hail, and some STRONG, possibly LONG TRACK Tornadoes appear at the moment to be a good probability.  Again, as with Saturday, this will be addressed in more detail on Sunday.  The 3 forecast parameters chosen did indicate this morning SBCAPE Values of 2000 – 2500, MLCAPE 1000 – 1500, and SWEAT INDEX of 475 – 525.

NAM – WRF MORNING OUTPUT
f5 gfs.sunsweat7am

f5 gfs.sunsweat10am

I will try to have a synopsis out before I leave for church on Sunday, seeings  how the model solutions at the moment have this as a morning event.

From the SPC DAY 4 / DAY OUTLOOK:

…MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES…

The following is the SPC DAY 4 and DAY 5 Outlook map, and is linked to the discussion.  These days will be addressed as they become days 2 and 3 respectively

SPC DAY 4 – DAY 8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE STILL FORECAST BY SPC…ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…APR. 25, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER.

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m currently around AMA…might hang out where dry line sets up and see if I have any luck from behind. Threat doesn’t look as significant as it did earlier in week??

      • Monty says:

        Yes Sir

        • If you do…BE CAREFUL messing around with the dryline. Just for my curiosity, and not being sarcastic or anything, do you know the mechanics of the dryline?

          • Monty says:

            Not an expert Storm. I know staying behind the dry line at a safe distance…I should be fine as storms form in front of dry line. I would wait for a warning and proceed with caution. I know the two most important rules…always have a partner and always have an escape route. So…If I can’t find both…it’s a no go.

            • originallt says:

              Be careful, Monty!

              • Monty says:

                Will do guys. I try to be as safe as possible. I do it for a hobby…not to have my video posted on TWC. Even when behind dry line…ALWAYS look behind you…ALWAYS know exactly where you are and ALWAYS have your NOAA weather radio on alert mode. This thing might be setting up too late anyways. Have to get back to DEN to deal with other tornado…the ex.

                • Just a tip on what the dryline does. The dryline separates warm, moist air to the east, and has very much warmer to hot dry air to the west…same to slightly higher surface temps, but very dry dewpoints…example: Dew points may be in the 60″s east of the dryline, and in the 30’s west of it. This does 2 things….hot dry air is denser than warm moist air…so, the dryline aids in strong lift ahead of it. Second, the air associated with the dryline is much warmer, so it “caps” the atmosphere..now, for severe storm initiation, the cap has to be overcome…this is done in 2 ways…surface heating to the point the air temp becomes warmer than that of the dryline, or, cold air in the mid levels takes over the dryline…before this happens, all of this energy is “trapped” by the cap…when the cap breaks..all hell breaks loose, as the trapped heat rises at an extreme rate, especially if we have steep lapse rates…so “kaboom”! Very strong stuff occurs. Of course, if all the necessary parameters are there.

                • Monty says:

                  Thanks Storm!! Some I did know but definitely some I DIDN’T know. You are always teaching me/all of us and it is greatly appreciated Senior Chief!!

  2. dellamom says:

    My goodness, it looks like just about all of us will have a piece of this particular pie. Thank you so much Storm for keeping on top of this stuff and making sure we know what may be coming our way and that of our families. God bless you and yours and prayers to all in the path over the next many days.

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