Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norma, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF VA/NC…
Based on analysis this morning of information provided in the Day 1 Outlook, and forecast Severe Weather Indices, the main threat today appears to be Hail and Damaging Thunderstorm winds. Albeit forecast indices from this morning do not denote tornadic activity, SPC hold a 5% risk over a portion of the area, so tornadoes may not be ruled out in some isolated surface based rotating cells.
The following outline indicates where the most probable chance for severe weather should occur this afternoon into early evening:
I am not expecting anything very significant from today’s event based on weakening parameters as the day wears on. Residents within the slight risk area however should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Office Statements and Warnings for severe weather that may occur in your area. ALL of the graphics to follow are linked..just click on them for the latest information regarding today’s severe weather.
We have a full plate as far as severe weather is concerned…not only for the weekend, but including MON / TUE of next week. I am going to break this down for the weekend (briefly) for now, and will try to have a more in depth synopsis by taking each day as Day 1 as it becomes applicable and posting numerous Severe Weather indices such as SBCAPE, MLCAPE, SWEAT INDEX, TOTALS TOTALS INDEX, LIFTED INDEX, EHI, SHOWALTER INDEX, CRAVEN BROOKS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE INDEX, etc.
The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS regarding the Day 2 Convective Outlook
Based on analysis of information contained in the SPC Outlook, and thorough analysis of various forecast severe weather indices through F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, the GFS and NAM – WRF models are in agreement of a narrow corridor of some significant severe weather within the slight risk area on Saturday. The onset of this event seems to initiate during maximum daytime heating, and as the dryline advances toward the east. This portion of the synopsis is a preliminary forecast in that it is based on utilizing just 3 severe weather parameters at the moment. The actual forecast tomorrow will be based on a more complete analysis of at least 8 – 10 various forecast indices. The following maps outline this corridor, to which the stronger SWEAT values indicate a greater potential for tornadic activity. At the moment, an isolated strong tornado, possibly long track cannot be ruled out in the highest SWEAT value area, albeit severe hail and damaging straight line winds may be the greatest threat.
The SPC has issued a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms FOR THE ARKLATEX AREA…
There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST…in the Day 3 Outlook
Based on the outlook text, and analysis of forecast severe weather indices and parameters from F5 DATA Software, it appears the SPC is currently leaning toward the NAM – WRF solution…this is based on my analysis of the GFS being too far south and not as extensive as shown in the SPC Outlook.
Again, this is a preliminary synopsis, however based on analysis, it appears a significant severe weather event may be in store on Sunday. Large damaging Hail, and some STRONG, possibly LONG TRACK Tornadoes appear at the moment to be a good probability. Again, as with Saturday, this will be addressed in more detail on Sunday. The 3 forecast parameters chosen did indicate this morning SBCAPE Values of 2000 – 2500, MLCAPE 1000 – 1500, and SWEAT INDEX of 475 – 525.
I will try to have a synopsis out before I leave for church on Sunday, seeings how the model solutions at the moment have this as a morning event.
From the SPC DAY 4 / DAY OUTLOOK:
…MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES…
The following is the SPC DAY 4 and DAY 5 Outlook map, and is linked to the discussion. These days will be addressed as they become days 2 and 3 respectively
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)