SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SPC STILL CALLING FOR SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND…ISSUED APR. 24, 2014…11:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norma, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of the MID MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION TO ARKLATEX…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS (LINKED)

Based on my analysis of forecast Severe Weather Indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, output from the GFS seems to agree more closely with the graphical nature and information contained in the SPC Outlook.

Based on the analysis, and regarding information in the outlook text, I expect thunderstorm activity to start out today as elevated structures in nature, with wind and hail being the main concern.  As the atmosphere destabilizes more as we get into later afternoon / early evening, indices such as Bulk Richardson Index, Deep Layer Shear, Speed and directional shear, increased Theta-E, etc. tend to indicate activity to become more surfaced based supercell type along with increased rotation.  Isolated tornado activity could occur from these cells, however with not all parameters forecast as favorable, any tornadic activity may be limited to EF0 – EF2 type.  Please be aware however, if any of the weaker or missing parameters become stronger, or come into play, this can change.

The following maps are from the GFS output from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, and should be regarded as a fair approximation of probable severe weather

SWEAT (SEVERE WEATHER THREAT) 1:00 P.M. CDT
f5 gfs.day1sweat1pm

SWEAT 4:00 P.M. CDT
f5 gfs.day1sweat4pm

SWEAT 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5 gfs.day1sweat7pm

TORNADO THREAT 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5 gfs.day1torthreat7pm

I chose a tornado threat area for 7:00 p.m., as this is when storms could become surfaced based and display stronger rotation.  Tornadic activity is still a good possibility within the other outlined areas.

Residents within the slight risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Office Statements and Warnings for severe weather that may occur in your area.  ALL of the graphics to follow are linked..just click on them for the latest information regarding today’s severe weather.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

I will try to post an update on the upcoming severe weather event for this weekend into Monday.  There have been some slight changes as far as severity, however SPC is still calling for a significant event.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SPC STILL CALLING FOR SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND…ISSUED APR. 24, 2014…11:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…all eyes on Saturday.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I’ll be following.

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