Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norma, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of the MID MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION TO ARKLATEX…
Based on my analysis of forecast Severe Weather Indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, output from the GFS seems to agree more closely with the graphical nature and information contained in the SPC Outlook.
Based on the analysis, and regarding information in the outlook text, I expect thunderstorm activity to start out today as elevated structures in nature, with wind and hail being the main concern. As the atmosphere destabilizes more as we get into later afternoon / early evening, indices such as Bulk Richardson Index, Deep Layer Shear, Speed and directional shear, increased Theta-E, etc. tend to indicate activity to become more surfaced based supercell type along with increased rotation. Isolated tornado activity could occur from these cells, however with not all parameters forecast as favorable, any tornadic activity may be limited to EF0 – EF2 type. Please be aware however, if any of the weaker or missing parameters become stronger, or come into play, this can change.
The following maps are from the GFS output from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, and should be regarded as a fair approximation of probable severe weather
I chose a tornado threat area for 7:00 p.m., as this is when storms could become surfaced based and display stronger rotation. Tornadic activity is still a good possibility within the other outlined areas.
Residents within the slight risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Office Statements and Warnings for severe weather that may occur in your area. ALL of the graphics to follow are linked..just click on them for the latest information regarding today’s severe weather.
I will try to post an update on the upcoming severe weather event for this weekend into Monday. There have been some slight changes as far as severity, however SPC is still calling for a significant event.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)