GOMEX GALE CENTER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 18, 2014…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good morning all!

The low pressure system I mentioned last night is underway in the GOMEX.  The NWS has statements and warnings up for the areas affected, and can be accessed by clicking on the NWS Hazards and Warnings display.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

The area of low pressure is slowly becoming more defined, and is moving in a general ENE – NE direction.  The rain shield extends out fairly far from the center, and inland areas are already feeling the effects of light to moderate rainfall.

Based on model guidance, and information in the NWS Coastal and Offshore forecasts, winds of 20 – 30 knots can be expected as this system continues eastward and crosses the Florida Panhandle area this afternoon.

GFS SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
GFS SURFACE.WIND

f5 gfs.sfcwind

Seas COULD reach 8 – 10 ft offshore and 5 -7 ft close to the coast.  Boaters should remain inport today and tonight over the GOMEX area, and boaters off the SEUS coast should remain inport over the next 3 days or so.  RESIDENTS ALONG THESE AREAS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE BEACH AND OUT OF THE WATER DUE TO STRONG WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS…DO NOT BECOME A STATISTIC!

STORMSURF WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST

This system is forecast to slow as it crosses Florida, and may meander off the SEUS coast for about 36 – 48 hours, before phasing with a 500 mb cutoff low and ejecting NEWD out into the open Atlantic.

GFS SURFACE

Residents in the affected areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and Local NWS Statements and Warnings, and should remain aware of the risk of Flash Flooding, along with some coastal flooding at the time of high tide.

ALL of the graphics are linked for you to click on for either a close up view, and/or up to date information.

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for portions of the FLORIDA PENINSULA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

GFS FORECAST RAIN TOTALS VALID FOR 2:00 P.M. TODAY
f5 gfs.tpw

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to GOMEX GALE CENTER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 18, 2014…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    HAPPY EASTER MR STORM AND EVERYBODY ON THIS BLOG.

  2. Monty says:

    Hey Storm. Staying overnight in ABI…heading for SAT tomorrow morning for Easter with my family. Damn it!! Looks like some good stuff might be setting up…right behind me. Oh well…the Resurrection of our Lord is a lot more important than chasing after something that could twirl me around like a bath toy. Happy Easter Storm…LT…Dellamom and everyone…God Bless you all!!

  3. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, heard there was a tornado warning in the Tampa Bay area. Did it “touch down” anywhere that you know of?

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. As LT said…stay safe down there. HA…looks like I’m SOL on any shot at a chase. Maybe next time.

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm for the up-date. Looks like the Florida West Coast could be hit hard this afternoon, including your area, please be careful. LT

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