SEVERE WEATHER FOREAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 15, 2014…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good day everyone!

The threat for Severe Weather continues this morning for the SEUS, up through the Tidewater area.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms today for N FL AND SE GA…and ACROSS ERN NC AND SE VA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of various atmospheric parameters, the main threat today should be damaging straight line thunderstorm winds, and hail.  However, given the wind profiles in the lower to mid levels, isolated, embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out.  Any tornadic activity should be closer toward the weaker end of the scale, as based on early morning computer model runs, the forecast shows weaker parameters concerning tornadoes.  ANY sufficient daytime heating could however up the ante.

It appears the BEST probability for more active weather into this afternoon, will be the immediate SEUS area, where CAPE values are forecast to be the highest.

CAPE: n meteorology, convective available potential energy (CAPE),[1] sometimes, simply, available potential energy (APE), is the amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere. CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather. It is a form of fluid instability found in thermally stratified atmospheres in which a colder fluid overlies a warmer one. As explained below, when an air mass is unstable, the element of the air mass that is displaced upwards is accelerated by the pressure differential between the displaced air and the ambient air at the (higher) altitude to which it was displaced. This usually creates vertically developed clouds from convection, due to the rising motion, which can eventually lead to thunderstorms. It could also be created in other phenomenon, such as a cold front. Even if the air is cooler on the surface, there is still warmer air in the mid-levels, that can rise into the upper-levels. However, if there is not enough water vapor present, there is no ability for condensation, thus storms, clouds, and rain will not form.

FORECAST CAPE FROM F5 DATA

GFS
f5 gfs.cape

NAM
f5 nam.cape

RAP
f5 rap.cape

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites for you to click on to obtain the latest up to date severe weather information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS, WATCHES, AND WARNINGS DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FOREAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 15, 2014…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, looks like something trying to form South of Louisiana. I don’t think it can be tropical?–Maybe Sub-Tropical?

  2. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, Monty and all. I wound up getting 1.50″ of liquid precipitation, out of the storm, and a coating of snow on the cars and on grassy surfaces and lawn furniture ! The temp. got down to 28F over night. It will be only 45-50F for a high today, about 15F below normal. And windy too out of the NW at 10-20mph, WHG. So it feels a lot colder. But the sun is out so when you are in the sun it’s not too bad. Snow melting rapidly now but still only 36F, at 10:23am.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Good deal…SPC backed Slight Risk out of CHS. Have a good one!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and thanks for the explanation on CAPE values. My son is in the Jacksonville area today, looks like they will get rocked!. Heavy rain here in Stamford now, should end in a little while, then a big area of heavy rain in Pa. and Maryland and De moving NE towards me. I’ll post my final totals tonight or tomorrow morning. May have some back end wet snow but NO accumulation expected tonight. Turning cold though.

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