Good day everyone!
The SPC, Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL KS TO IA AND SRN WI/NW IL…
Based on my analysis of the current forecast severe weather indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast Software, with output from the GFS and NAM – WRF models, the main threat appears to be significant hail, and damaging straight line winds. Some isolated tornadoes CANNOT be ruled out within the risk area, and are most likely to be probable within the WHITE circled areas from approximately 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT. Indices indicate this is where the most significant of the severe weather should occur. More linear storms may occur over the northern half of the risk outline, and supercell activity could be more prominent closer to the southern periphery, albeit as the afternoon wears on, this activity could occur further north.
The only major difference between the GFS and NAM output is, the NAM is a little more bullish than the GFS in terms of SBCAPE and SWEAT values over some areas. As far as the “average however, here are the forecast indices expected. Please compare them to the indices charts provided:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/kg
MLCAPE: 100 – 1500 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -8
SWEAT INDEX: 400 – 475
TOTALS TOTALS INDEX: 56 – 58
EHI: 1 – 2
SHOWALTER INDEX: -6 to -4
CRAVEN BROOKS INDEX: 20,000 to 30,000
SURFACE THETA – E: 330 – 335
MOKASCAN SEVERE INDICES CHART
THE WEATHER PREDICTION SEVERE INDICES PAGE
Residents around the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and Local NWS office statements and warnings today and tonight.
The following are linked so you may click on them for the latest up to date severe weather information. PLEASE use these, especially for tomorrows severe weather episode, as I will be out of the office all day.
The SPC, Norman OK. has issued a MODERATE risk for Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS EASTERN OK in the DAY 2 Outlook
A SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms has been issued for THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…
Based on information in the Outlook. this may be a little more robust event than today’s. I have not had the chance to analyze this, nor will I be able to. I will also be out of the office tomorrow (friends wedding tonight and plans tomorrow). AGAIN, PLEASE use the posted graphics to stay abreast of current severe weather information.
Have a fantastic weekend!
. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)