WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 12, 2014…ISSUED 12:45 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good day everyone!

The SPC, Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL KS TO IA AND SRN WI/NW IL…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on my analysis of the current forecast severe weather indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast Software, with output from the GFS and NAM – WRF models, the main threat appears to be significant hail, and damaging straight line winds.  Some isolated tornadoes CANNOT be ruled out within the risk area, and are most likely to be probable within the WHITE circled areas from approximately 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT.  Indices indicate this is where the most significant of the severe weather should occur.  More linear storms may occur over the northern half of the risk outline, and supercell activity could be more prominent closer to the southern periphery, albeit as the afternoon wears on, this activity could occur further north.

GFS 4:00 P.M. AND 7:00 P.M. CDT
gfs sweat f54pm

gfs sweat f57pm

DRYLINE LOCATIONS 4:00 P.M. – 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5 data.drylinefirst

f5 data.dryline

The only major difference between the GFS and NAM output is, the NAM is a little more bullish than the GFS in terms of SBCAPE and SWEAT values over some areas.  As far as the “average however, here are the forecast indices expected.  Please compare them to the indices charts provided:

SBCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/kg
MLCAPE: 100 – 1500 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -8
SWEAT INDEX: 400 – 475
TOTALS TOTALS INDEX: 56 – 58
EHI: 1 – 2
SHOWALTER INDEX: -6 to -4
CRAVEN BROOKS INDEX: 20,000 to 30,000
SURFACE THETA – E: 330 – 335

MOKASCAN SEVERE INDICES CHART
http://www.mokanscan.net/svrindicies.html

THE WEATHER PREDICTION SEVERE INDICES PAGE
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

Residents around the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and Local NWS office statements and warnings today and tonight.

The following are linked so you may click on them for the latest up to date severe weather information.  PLEASE use these, especially for tomorrows severe weather episode, as I will be out of the office all day.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS MAP…CLICK ON YOUR STATE OR AREA OF INTEREST

DOPPLER RADAR

The SPC, Norman OK. has issued a MODERATE risk for Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS EASTERN OK in the DAY 2 Outlook

A SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms has been issued for THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on information in the Outlook. this may be a little more robust event than today’s.  I have not had the chance to analyze this, nor will I be able to.  I will also be out of the office tomorrow (friends wedding tonight and plans tomorrow).  AGAIN, PLEASE use the posted graphics to stay abreast of current severe weather information.

Have a fantastic weekend!

. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 12, 2014…ISSUED 12:45 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm 49 more days until hurricane season.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Supposed to get some of this bad weather here in SW CT. by Monday night or Tuesday.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…will pass this on. Even close enough to pass on to friends mom in OMA. Wow…major model shift for our storm. Euro has backed way off on acc while GFS has gone hell bent on a major winter storm…even in DEN. Hmmm…we shall see. Wishing you the best on finding a good job Senior Chief!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s