WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 11, 2014…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good evening everyone!

Another round of Severe Weather is on tap for the weekend.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from NRN KS/FAR SRN NEB NEWD TO NRN IL/SRN WI…in the DAY 2 OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on the current information contained in the outlook, I concur at the moment with the main threat being hail and damaging thunderstorm winds, based on analysis of forecast severe weather indices.  Based on my analysis this afternoon of forecast indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the 12Z GFS and NAM – WRF output indicate indicates mainly mutli cellular to squall line type development, with the 2 exceptions being further south in the risk area, or, if the CAP can be overcome.  The latter COULD occur should forecast daytime heating become sufficient enough.  Analysis of forecast indices and parameters indicate the best probability of severe weather development to lie within the outlined areas of both the GFS and NAM models, and initiating around 3:00 p.m to 7:00 p.m. CDT.  The LLJ (Low Level Jet) is forecast to strengthen during the early evening, and some discrete cells could be elevated, and become organized to produce large hail.

NAM 4:00 P.M. CDT
f5 data.nam sweat

NAM 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5 data.nam sweat7pm

GFS 4:00 P.M. CDT
gfs sweat f54pm

GFS 7:00 P.M. CDT
gfs sweat f57pm

Albeit parameters can change between now and tomorrow afternoon, the premise is, that instability / lift will be greater than shear, leading to the more prominent threat of Hail and Damaging Straight Line Winds.  I copied a limited list of forecast indices, so those who wish, may compare them to the indices int he following charts.

SELECT FORECAST INDICES

SBCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg
Lifted Index: -6 to -8
SWEAT Index: 375 – 450
Showalter Index: -6 to -4

MOKANSCAN SEVERE INDICES
http://www.mokanscan.net/svrindicies.html

THE WEATHER PREDICTION INDICES CHART
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

I will try to have an update tomorrow morning sometime, and will most likely be sometime after the 12Z Upper Air soundings are posted for within the risk area.

The SPC has also issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Weather for THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…in the DAY 3 Outlook:

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

DAY 3 PROBABILITY MAP

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 11, 2014…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks , Storm. And I hope things are “picking-up” for the better with your health, too!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Again…sorry so late. Working a potentially major Winter Storm back here. Looking like split systems. One crossing Socal and racing East across Okla. Another carving North as a Closed Low then diving South through the Great Basin/N/NC Rockies. Add a very strong cold front to the mix providing strong E/NE upslope flow and we have a mess on our hands. Definitely will pass this on to friends/family in DFW/IAH/SHV/STL. WHEESHHH…things are picking up Senior Chief!!

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