SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 31, 2014…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

Good day everyone!

As of this morning, it appears Severe Weather chances will be ongoing Tuesday into Thursday, with Thursday (D4) still promising to be the most significant severe event.

The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the current DAY 2 Outlook OVER A PORTION OF NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK… AND FROM EXTREME NRN OK INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of output from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, model output indicates the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms to be centered over Oklahoma.  I will update and address this as the DAY 1 Outlook tomorrow.

The DAY 3 Outlook shows a more robust coverage, with severe parameters becoming much stronger.  These forecast parameters based on the discussion, could rival close to forecast indices for the current DAY 4 forecast.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

The current DAY 4 forecast outlook is pretty much centered over AR.  The most likely area for significant Severe Weather is over AR., and the portion of OK. SWD into TX.

SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310900
SPC AC 310900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

VALID 031200Z – 081200Z …

DISCUSSION…
/DAY 4/ MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY…BUT SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE. FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE AND HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM ERN OK THROUGH ERN TX. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEYS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/BOWS.

/DAY 5/ SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT…BUT THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL TEND TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE RICHER MOIST AXIS WITH TIME. WHILE A SEVERE RISK AREA WILL LIKELY BE INCLUDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS…TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE QUALITY OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME.

Analysis of forecast Severe Weather Indices from F5 DATA Software shows really relatively little change from yesterday evening, with some select indices forecast to reach the following levels:

SBCAPE: 1500 – 3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg
TOTALS-TOTALS INDEX: 56C – 60C
K INDEX: 30 – 35
SWEAT INDEX: 425 – 475
EHI: 1 – 3
CRAVEN BROOKS INDEX: 30000 – 50000
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -10…POSSIBLY -12
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.5C/km – 8.0C/km

The following lists these indices and the meaning of their values.  I would not be surprised to see SPC issue a MDT risk on day 4, especially if daytime heating can destabilize the atmosphere more.

MOKANSCAN SEVERE WEATHER INDICES LIST
http://www.mokanscan.net/svrindicies.html

THE WEATHER PREDICTION INDICES LIST
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

I will continue to monitor this, and will try to have updates as much as possible.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 31, 2014…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Big earth-quake, 8.2 magnitude, in Northern Chile.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, ended up up with 2.88″ total from the last storm system that went through. Actually had a little snow on the back end, covered the grass. Parts of Central Long Island received 4-5″!–of un-expected snow!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’ll pass this on. With an increased chance of El Nino…I’ll be curious of our increased chance of Severe WX in E Colo…not to mention next Winter.

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