SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 28, 2014…ISSUED 9:20 A.M. EDT…WCFLHURRSWEATFC

Good morning everyone!

Seems as if we have a little heftier S.W.E.A.T. (Severe WEAther Threat) on tap for today, especially over portions of TX / LA.  As of the analysis time of this synopsis, the 12Z Upper Air Soundings from SPC had not been completed yet.  However, based on soundings taken from 00Z yesterday evening, results indicated a very unstable atmosphere within the risk area, primarily over eastern portions of Texas, to which parameters indicate a very good chance of supercell development.  In fact, current Mesoanalysis indicates SBCAPE values over portions of TX are already in the 1500 – 2000 j/kg range.

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM CNTRL/ERN TX AND SERN OK EWD TO WRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK


Based on my analysis earlier this morning of the aforementioned upper air soundings, and forecast severe weather parameters based on output from the RAP and GFS models through F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, the highest probability for significant severe weather lies within the risk area in the red outline.  The pink dotting represents where tornado activity could be the most active, albeit I cannot safely rule out isolated tornado activity for the entire red outlined area.  The red outlined area represents where some pretty strong severe weather indices will occur.  The forecast data are projecting the following values:

SBCAPE: 1500 – 3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -10
day1otlk_1200

These parameters, along with surface and mid level lapse rates of 7.5 – 8.0 C/km should be ideal for a significant hail event.  Bulk-Richardson values do indicate however, instability may be greater than shear, which would tend to lead to squall line / LEWP type storm initiation, with embedded supercells.  However, with the current SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) averaging 5.0, supercells are quite likely.  Based on what I have seen this morning in the data, I am inclined to move the significant hail risk into the state of LA., JUST AS A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE.

Residents within the risk area today should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements, Advisories and Warnings.  The following graphics are linked, and should provide current information by clicking them.  IF YOU ARE PLACED UNDER A TORNADO WARNING, OR EXPERIENCE SEVERE HAIL TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARD, WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR STATE FOR CURRENT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS

Have a blessed day, and STAY SAFE!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 28, 2014…ISSUED 9:20 A.M. EDT…WCFLHURRSWEATFC

  1. originallt says:

    As we near midnight here, so far I’ve got about 1.40″ of rain today, more called for on Sunday. Hope you got thru those T. Storms and heavy rains in the Tampa area Storm. Please report in when you can. LT

  2. originallt says:

    Looks like this Saturday at just after noon time, some strong storms are moving towards the general Tampa area, especially just N of Tampa. Stay safe Storm and all down there!

  3. Mac says:

    Just over 2 1/2 inches here at the house since midnight. Hope it didn’t wash away the 60lbs of fertilizer I just dropped yesterday. Gonna be a wet day out on the links tomorrow 😦 Flash flood warnings from New Orleans all the way along the coastal counties to the MS/AL border with heavy rain falling and more on the way.

  4. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. I woke to thunder and am still hearing it 3 hours later. Rain has been intermittent and ranges from sprinkles to downpours. I have not yet replaced my old-fashioned rain gauge, but hope to do so this weekend since we appear to be in the spring inundation period here. Prayers to those in the worst of the weather and I fervently hope for no tornadoes. At least with hurricanes, we in hurricane-prone areas have time to get the heck out of Dodge. Tornadoes are not that considerate.

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like a doozie…will pass on to friends/family in TX/LA…definitely that time of year.

  6. originallt says:

    Especially Gregg in Mobile. Be careful.

  7. originallt says:

    WOW! looks like some severe weather going on in the deep South right now, take care everyone down there.

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