Good morning everyone!
Seems as if we have a little heftier S.W.E.A.T. (Severe WEAther Threat) on tap for today, especially over portions of TX / LA. As of the analysis time of this synopsis, the 12Z Upper Air Soundings from SPC had not been completed yet. However, based on soundings taken from 00Z yesterday evening, results indicated a very unstable atmosphere within the risk area, primarily over eastern portions of Texas, to which parameters indicate a very good chance of supercell development. In fact, current Mesoanalysis indicates SBCAPE values over portions of TX are already in the 1500 – 2000 j/kg range.
The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM CNTRL/ERN TX AND SERN OK EWD TO WRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE…
Based on my analysis earlier this morning of the aforementioned upper air soundings, and forecast severe weather parameters based on output from the RAP and GFS models through F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, the highest probability for significant severe weather lies within the risk area in the red outline. The pink dotting represents where tornado activity could be the most active, albeit I cannot safely rule out isolated tornado activity for the entire red outlined area. The red outlined area represents where some pretty strong severe weather indices will occur. The forecast data are projecting the following values:
These parameters, along with surface and mid level lapse rates of 7.5 – 8.0 C/km should be ideal for a significant hail event. Bulk-Richardson values do indicate however, instability may be greater than shear, which would tend to lead to squall line / LEWP type storm initiation, with embedded supercells. However, with the current SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) averaging 5.0, supercells are quite likely. Based on what I have seen this morning in the data, I am inclined to move the significant hail risk into the state of LA., JUST AS A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE.
Residents within the risk area today should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements, Advisories and Warnings. The following graphics are linked, and should provide current information by clicking them. IF YOU ARE PLACED UNDER A TORNADO WARNING, OR EXPERIENCE SEVERE HAIL TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
Have a blessed day, and STAY SAFE!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)