SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 27, 2014…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EDT…WCFLHURRSWEATFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for this afternoon into this evening FROM ERN PARTS OF KS AND OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DISPLAY

Analysis earlier of the 12Z Upper Air Soundings from around the risk area proved inconclusive, as conditions showed to be very stable.  However, as daytime heating occurs, along with an influx of moisture from the GOMEX, we should see some destabilization of the atmosphere.  Based on my analysis of various Severe Weather indices through both F5 Data Severe Weather Software with input from the following models (GFS, NAM-WRF, RAP), and indices from the SPC SREF model, I am inclined to extend the risk area further south into ARKANSAS.

Albeit, as we have seen in the past few severe risks, the main threat today into this evening appears to be straight line winds and hail.  Later on this afternoon however, storms may most likely become surface based, and the threat for supercell development should increase, and some isolated tornadoes could occur.  Analysis indicates the most probable area for tornadic thunderstorm activity should occur within the SPC 5% prob outline…HOWEVER…based on my current analysis, I AM NOT willing at this time to rule out isolated tornadic storms into ARKANSAS as outlined in the following map, as the approaching dryline is forecast to retreat further south by late afternoon:
day1probotlk_1300_torn

It appears the onset of any severe weather should be near 1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. CDT carrying into the early evening hours.

The following graphics from both the GFS and NAM indicate where Storm Relative Helicity (twisting in the atmosphere), and Supercell Composite Parameters are forecast to be the greatest for late afternoon / early evening.  Model Graphics Generated by Harris WeatherCaster(TM)
NAM SRH

GFS SRH

NAM SCP

GFS SCP

Residents in the risk area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and Warnings.  The following are linked for you to retrieve CURRENT information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARD DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR STATE FOR THE LATEST WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND WEATHER STATEMENTS)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

Stay safe, and have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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