HURRICANE FORCE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AND OFFSHORE AREAS WEDNESDAY / SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL U.S. FOR THURSDAY…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 25, 2014…ISSUED 11:45 A.M. EDT…WCFLHURRSWEATFC

IMPORTANT UPDATE…MAR. 25, 2014..ISSUED 5:15 P.M. EDT:

Analysis of Global Models and Satellite loop imagery indicate the powerful offshore storm in the works may shift track slightly to the WEST, thereby bringing stronger winds and higher seas along the coastal areas mentioned in this morning’s forecast.  Seas are now forecast to run closer to 8 ft – 11 ft at the coast, 13 ft – 16 ft near Cape Cod Bay, and possibly 18 ft – 21 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of Maine.

Sustained winds along the coast have been increased in modeling to be around 35 mph-40 mph and minimal Hurricane Force Winds at or near 68W – 67W.  Please take this time to read the forecast synopsis once more and PLEASE utilize the graphics provided.

GFS
GFS SURFACE

ECMWF
ECMWF SURFACE

NAM
NAM SURFACE

Good day everyone!

Full plate today, meteorologically speaking:

Analysis this morning of the Global Models, NAM Regional Model, and NWW3 / STORMSURF Models indicates really no major changes, or let up in the strength of the upcoming offshore system.  The modeling has been consistent run to run, over the past 72 hours, that this system will in fact “bomb” as it begins to get north of latitude 41.0N.  Based on careful analysis of surface and upper level features, as well as water vapor imagery this morning, this system should begin as an area of developing low pressure either East of the Florida East Coast, or near the FL/GA border latitude.  The system will continue to deepen as steering takes it on pretty much a NE track until once at the latitude of near Cape Cod.  As this system passes that latitude, it will begin to phase with a 500 mb trof, where upon phasing, the storm is forecast to “bomb” and could attain sub 960 mb pressures as it hits the Eastern portions of Nova Scotia.  Currently, the best estimate I can give you, until satellite reveals where this beings to develop, the center of this system should remain between 250 – 300 nm offshore.  ANY shift closer to the West will bring stronger effects to the New England area.

GFS FORECAST
GFS SURFACE

ECMWF FORECAST
ECMWF SURFACE

CMC GGEM FORECAST
CMC SURF

UKMET FORECAST
UKMET SURF

NAM FORECAST
NAM SURFACE

FIM MODEL FORECAST

Based on the latest information, especially noting the isobar spacing on the Western portion of the storm, I have NO REASON at this time, to doubt the forecast wind velocities and wave heights as projected by the STORMSURF modeling.  Residents along the coastal areas from Maine to Cape Cod should prepare for sustained wind velocities close to Tropical Storm force, right now forecast to range near 35 – 38 mph out of the N – NNW.  Given the onshore flow of these winds, they WILL drive seas into NORTH FACING BEACHES AND SHORELINE.  These winds, combined with wave heights, will most likely produce coastal flooding and beach erosion at the time of high tide on Wednesday.

NOAA TIDE FORECASTS (CLICK ON THE AREA OF INTEREST)
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/tide_predictions.html

Sea heights near the immediate coastal areas may be on the order of 6 ft –  10 ft, with seas over the Gulf of Maine ranging around 14 ft – 19 ft.  Further toward the SE from 66.5W to 63.0W, seas may range from 30 ft – 34 ft.  THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION OFFSHORE.

STORMSURF WINDS FORECAST

STORMSURF SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST

This Forecast Center recommends boaters and commercial fisherman seek safe harbor IMMEDIATELY, prior to the onset of deteriorating conditions.

Residents along the coastal areas from Maine to Cape Cod Bay, should remain away from the beaches and out of the water, due to dangerous RIP CURRENTS which are almost absolutely to occur.

Please monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and ALL NWS Local Statements and Warnings regarding this system.  Graphics on this site are linked…PLEASE CLICK on them for any information you deem necessary.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

U.S. EASTERN SATELLITE LOOP
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-avn.html

NWS WATCH, WARNING AND HAZARDS MAP (CLICK ON YOUR STATE FOR CURRENT NWS INFORMATION)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU…

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Right now, preliminary analysis indicates the area having the most probable risk, is outlined in the red area.  I will be updating this as model information and severe weather parameters update.
day3otlk_0730

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to HURRICANE FORCE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AND OFFSHORE AREAS WEDNESDAY / SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL U.S. FOR THURSDAY…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 25, 2014…ISSUED 11:45 A.M. EDT…WCFLHURRSWEATFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Monty, So far my Barometer has been “stuck” at 29.95″ for several hours now. When that storm gets “cranking” it should get real windy out of the NW, and the Barometer will fall fast. Still looks like only a “dusting” to at most 1″ here. Sw CT.

    • Monty says:

      Kinda like a Hurricane…I’m guessing. Just a few clicks away and…nothing…a little further West this witch comes and…bang!! We get storms in Colo like this…minus the tropical affects…still the wind and snow. This time of year…both at once. Seen gusts of over 110 mph with 6-12 inches of snow. Glad I don’t live up there now…DEN bad enough. HA…looking forward to an El Nino Summer…makes for better storm chasing out here!!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…will alert friends in DFW/SHV of Severe threat. That sure looks like one badass storm along East Coast. Stay safe LT!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Still have dim sunshine here in Sw CT. at this hour. Temp. is 38F Baro. is 30.11″ Wind WNW 2-7mph. Still calling for a Dusting to 3″ of snow here over night tonight.–Change that wind direction, it is variable now, at 2-7mph.

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