Good afternoon, everyone!
Analysis this morning of the following Global Models (GFS, ECMWF, and CMC), and the regional NAM (North American Mesoscale) Model indicate models have been consistent for the past 72 hours on the upcoming powerful, offshore storm. Again, the biggest impacts will be felt over the New England Coastal and Offshore areas, and the Gulf of Maine, all the way to Nova Scotia beginning late Tuesday, through the day on Wednesday. Right now, we are looking at the possibility of a sub 970 mb system at CPA off the New England Coast, east of the Cape Cod area, to possibly sub 960 mb as it approaches closer to the Nova Scotia area.
Albeit this system will be further offshore from the NJ / Mid Atlantic area, and the sustained wind flow should remain of an offshore flow, boaters in that area should remain in port.
As of the current models runs, sustained winds may be on the order of 30 – 35 mph right along the coast, to minimal hurricane force lying in an area from 44.0N to 40.0N and 67W to 65W.
Seas at the moment are expected to be from 5 to 7 ft along the immediate coast, to 10 ft in and around Cape Cod Bay. Seas in the area offshore with the highest sustained wind speed are expected to range between 23 – 30 ft. Boaters are urged to remain in port as this could present life threatening circumstances. Residents around the coastal areas are urged to stay away from the beach and out of the water due to strong rip currents and powerful waves.
A combination of an onshore flow for north facing shorelines, along with high surf will most likely produce coastal flooding and beach erosion at the time of high tide.
Please monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and ALL NWS statements and warnings. As always, graphics concerning satellite data, watches and warnings, and Doppler radar will be linked for current up to date information.
I will try to have another update tomorrow morning.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)