POSSIBLE MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE OFFSHORE STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 24, 2014…ISSUED 2:10 P.M. EDT…WCFLHURRSWEATFC

Good afternoon, everyone!

Analysis this morning of the following Global Models (GFS, ECMWF, and CMC), and the regional NAM (North American Mesoscale) Model indicate models have been consistent for the past 72 hours on the upcoming powerful, offshore storm.  Again, the biggest impacts will be felt over the New England Coastal and Offshore areas, and the Gulf of Maine, all the way to Nova Scotia beginning late Tuesday, through the day on Wednesday.  Right now, we are looking at the possibility of a sub 970 mb system at CPA off the New England Coast, east of the Cape Cod area, to possibly sub 960 mb as it approaches closer to the Nova Scotia area.

NAM FORECAST
NAM SURFACE

GFS FORECAST
GFS SURFACE

CMC FORECAST
CMC SURF

ECMWF FORECAST

FIM MODEL

Albeit this system will be further offshore from the NJ / Mid Atlantic area, and the sustained wind flow should remain of an offshore flow, boaters in that area should remain in port.

As of the current models runs, sustained winds may be on the order of 30 – 35 mph right along the coast, to minimal hurricane force lying in an area from 44.0N to 40.0N and 67W to 65W.

STORMSURF MODEL SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST

Seas at the moment are expected to be from 5 to 7 ft along the immediate coast, to 10 ft in and around Cape Cod Bay.  Seas in the area offshore with the highest sustained wind speed are expected to range between 23 – 30 ft.  Boaters are urged to remain in port as this could present life threatening circumstances.  Residents around the coastal areas are urged to stay away from the beach and out of the water due to strong rip currents and powerful waves.

STORMSURF SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST

NWS WATCH, WARNING, AND HAZARDS DISPLAY

A combination of an onshore flow for north facing shorelines, along with high surf will most likely produce coastal flooding and beach erosion at the time of high tide.

Please monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and ALL NWS statements and warnings.  As always, graphics concerning satellite data, watches and warnings, and Doppler radar will be linked for current up to date information.

I will try to have another update tomorrow morning.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to POSSIBLE MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE OFFSHORE STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 24, 2014…ISSUED 2:10 P.M. EDT…WCFLHURRSWEATFC

  1. originallt says:

    Still looking for only a “dusting” to up to 3″ for my area in SW CT. There seems to be a low trying to form over land in N.C. I wonder if this will change things a bit, maybe having the low forming closer to the coast and affecting us more?

  2. originallt says:

    Thank you storm. Locals up here are predicting from a dusting or nothing, up to 2-5″. Just not sure.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…definitely looks like a mean one!!

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