POWERFUL COASTAL / OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT MID WEEK…PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 21, 2014…ISSUED 10:30 P.M. EDT…WCFLHURSWEATFC

Good evening all!

I am posting now, as to cover for tonight and tomorrow.

One of my clients, LT Tobias had asked a question earlier of me of a possible upcoming coastal storm.  Glad he did,…I have had a full plate, and haven’t had the time to really check up on things over the past couple of days.

Based on analysis of some of the Global Models earlier today, and a second analysis this evening…it looks as if the NJ / New England area will be dealing with the most powerful coastal / offshore system yet this year.  Right now, the system will be mainly an offshore entity, however the GFS and CMC GGEM have trended slightly west with the system, while the ECMWF keeps this storm further offshore.

GFS FORECAST
GFS SURFACE

CMC GGEM FORECAST
CMC SURF

ECMWF FORECAST
12zecmwf500mbHGHTNA120

As it appears right now, the New England area, from Rhode Island, northward are pegged to take the worst of this storm.  Models are pretty much in agreement that by the time this system is east of the Cape Cod area, the New England area may be dealing with a sub 970 mb storm, that continues to deepen.

As of the latest run of the WaveWatch 3 and StormSurf wind and wave models, seas closer to the coast will be running 7 – 11 ft, progressing to 28 – 30 ft near 67W (west of Cape Cod), and 30-33 ft near 65W.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE COASTAL AREAS, and OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, with winds possibly reaching MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE east of the Cape Cod area near 67W.

FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS (LOOP)

FORECAST WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (LOOP)

The northeasterly and north flow will most probably cause some coastal flooding at high tide of north facing shorelines, along with beach erosion.

I will try to monitor this closely at the beginning of the week, and will try to post updates as much as possible.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to POWERFUL COASTAL / OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT MID WEEK…PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 21, 2014…ISSUED 10:30 P.M. EDT…WCFLHURSWEATFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. I’ll of course give you reports Tues/Wed. on the actual storm affects here in SW CT.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s