Good evening all!
I am posting now, as to cover for tonight and tomorrow.
One of my clients, LT Tobias had asked a question earlier of me of a possible upcoming coastal storm. Glad he did,…I have had a full plate, and haven’t had the time to really check up on things over the past couple of days.
Based on analysis of some of the Global Models earlier today, and a second analysis this evening…it looks as if the NJ / New England area will be dealing with the most powerful coastal / offshore system yet this year. Right now, the system will be mainly an offshore entity, however the GFS and CMC GGEM have trended slightly west with the system, while the ECMWF keeps this storm further offshore.
As it appears right now, the New England area, from Rhode Island, northward are pegged to take the worst of this storm. Models are pretty much in agreement that by the time this system is east of the Cape Cod area, the New England area may be dealing with a sub 970 mb storm, that continues to deepen.
As of the latest run of the WaveWatch 3 and StormSurf wind and wave models, seas closer to the coast will be running 7 – 11 ft, progressing to 28 – 30 ft near 67W (west of Cape Cod), and 30-33 ft near 65W. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE COASTAL AREAS, and OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, with winds possibly reaching MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE east of the Cape Cod area near 67W.
The northeasterly and north flow will most probably cause some coastal flooding at high tide of north facing shorelines, along with beach erosion.
I will try to monitor this closely at the beginning of the week, and will try to post updates as much as possible.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)