Good day everyone!
Still working on trying to find out how to set the site up for subscriptions. Hopefully I can find another means of employment, which will allow me to be here very often. Again, once set up, if I have enough subscribers, I may be able to lower the initial price of subscriptions.
On another note, if you haven’t noticed, I’ve changed the forecast office title. We are due to move out by May 1, 2014, and may no longer reside in Palm Harbor…so, west central Florida would be more appropriate.
Analysis this morning indicates a pretty much benign weather pattern during the next 5 days, albeit winter weather will be ongoing mainly over the northern third of the U.S. and NE. Analysis of mid and upper level flow over the next 5 days indicates a zonal flow regime.
Since the pattern over the next 5 days should be fairly tranquil, I thought I’d take the opportunity to touch on the upcoming hurricane season. Based on analysis of various forecast parameters from the CFS Modeling, ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Modeling, Current ENSO outlook, and some analog years regarding the probable similarities of ENSO ONI values and NAO values.
Based on the most up to date output from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast, and the CFS model data, an El Nino episode is forecast to take hold during the peak of this upcoming hurricane season.
COUPLED FORECAST SYSTEM SST ANOMALY FORECAST JAS 2014
Based on the NAO pattern since the end of Jan., and the current forecast into Apr., these values correlate closely to the analog years, especially 1982 and 2002.
To reiterate, having been in a predominately POSITIVE NAO regime, trades in the MDR have been stronger, allowing for the SST Anomalies to remain at, or slightly below average. The stronger than normal A/B high has allowed drier air to continue from 45W, westward into the GOMEX.
The closest ONI pattern for analog years, currently resembles that of 1972, 1982, 1991, 2002.
These years all had a below average season and are indicative of El Nino conditions, with the exception of 2002, which had a total of 12 named systems.
Now…we know that last year, a weaker El Nino was forecast by the Global Climate models and the CFS system, to which this never materialized. However, one item of note that may lend some credibility to these forecasts…is the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). The SOI has taken a severe dive into the negative over the past month. This indicates a change in wind flow…now being from west to east (Australia to South America). A strong dip in the SOI like this, indicates a very strong westerly wind burst, which will almost surely send a sub-surface Kelvin wave toward the South American coast, which will allow for the warmer sub-surface SST’s to begin forming that familiar “warm tongue” of water in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 regions.
Here is a brief explanation from CPC:
The fluctuations in ocean temperatures during El Niño and La Niña are accompanied by even larger-scale fluctuations in air pressure known as the Southern Oscillation. The negative phase of the Southern Oscillation occurs during El Niño episodes, and refers to the situation when abnormally high air pressure covers Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and abnormally low air pressure covers the eastern tropical Pacific. In contrast, the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation occurs during La Niña episodes, and refers to the situation when abnormally low air pressure covers Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and abnormally high air pressure covers the eastern tropical Pacific. These opposite phases of the Southern Oscillation are shown above.
Based on these “current” signals, I remain with my current forecast of 10 – 12 total named storms, which may even be a little generous at the moment. I will be assessing things again near the end of May.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)