CURRENT 120 HOUR OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS / TROPICAL ATLANTIC BRIEFING…MAR. 19, 2014…ISSUED 12:10 P.M. EDT…WCFLAHURSWEATFC

Good day everyone!

Still working on trying to find out how to set the site up for subscriptions.  Hopefully I can find another means of employment, which will allow me to be here very often.  Again, once set up, if I have enough subscribers, I may be able to lower the initial price of subscriptions.

On another note, if you haven’t noticed, I’ve changed the forecast office title.  We are due to move out by May 1, 2014, and may no longer reside in Palm Harbor…so, west central Florida would be more appropriate.

Analysis this morning indicates a pretty much benign weather pattern during the next 5 days, albeit winter weather will be ongoing mainly over the northern third of the U.S. and NE.  Analysis of mid and upper level flow over the next 5 days indicates a zonal flow regime.

NCEP GFS SURFACE FORECAST MAP 120 HOURS (CLICK ON THE MAP FOR THE LOOP LINK)


The current GFS Snowfall accumulation forecast for the next 5 days indicates snowfall to be confined fairly far north.

GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

Since the pattern over the next 5 days should be fairly tranquil, I thought I’d take the opportunity to touch on the upcoming hurricane season.  Based on analysis of various forecast parameters from the CFS Modeling, ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Modeling, Current ENSO outlook, and some analog years regarding the probable similarities of ENSO ONI values and NAO values.

Based on the most up to date output from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast, and the CFS model data, an El Nino episode is forecast to take hold during the peak of this upcoming hurricane season.

ECMWF SEASONAL FORECAST SST ANOMALIES FOR JAS 2014

COUPLED FORECAST SYSTEM SST ANOMALY FORECAST JAS 2014

ENSO ONI VALUES
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Based on the NAO pattern since the end of Jan., and the current forecast into Apr., these values correlate closely to the analog years, especially 1982 and 2002.

GFS ENSEMBLE NAO FORECAST

To reiterate, having been in a predominately POSITIVE NAO regime, trades in the MDR have been stronger, allowing for the SST Anomalies to remain at, or slightly below average.  The stronger than normal A/B high has allowed drier air to continue from 45W, westward into the GOMEX.

ATLANTIC WIDE WATER VAPOR LOOP

The closest ONI pattern for analog years, currently resembles that of 1972, 1982, 1991, 2002.

These years all had a below average season and are indicative of El Nino conditions, with the exception of 2002, which had a total of 12 named systems.

1972

1982

1991

2002

Now…we know that last year, a weaker El Nino was forecast by the Global Climate models and the CFS system, to which this never materialized.  However, one item of note that may lend some credibility to these forecasts…is the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index).  The SOI has taken a severe dive into the negative over the past month.  This indicates a change in wind flow…now being from west to east (Australia to South America).  A strong dip in the SOI like this, indicates a very strong westerly wind burst, which will almost surely send a sub-surface Kelvin wave toward the South American coast, which will allow for the warmer sub-surface SST’s to begin forming that familiar “warm tongue” of water in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 regions.

SOI INDEX 30 DAY RUNNING

Here is a brief explanation from CPC:

The fluctuations in ocean temperatures during El Niño and La Niña are accompanied by even larger-scale fluctuations in air pressure known as the Southern Oscillation. The negative phase of the Southern Oscillation occurs during El Niño episodes, and refers to the situation when abnormally high air pressure covers Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and abnormally low air pressure covers the eastern tropical Pacific. In contrast, the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation occurs during La Niña episodes, and refers to the situation when abnormally low air pressure covers Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and abnormally high air pressure covers the eastern tropical Pacific. These opposite phases of the Southern Oscillation are shown above.

Based on these “current” signals, I remain with my current forecast of 10 – 12 total named storms, which may even be a little generous at the moment.  I will be assessing things again near the end of May.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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18 Responses to CURRENT 120 HOUR OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS / TROPICAL ATLANTIC BRIEFING…MAR. 19, 2014…ISSUED 12:10 P.M. EDT…WCFLAHURSWEATFC

  1. originallt says:

    Just a note and question , Storm, looks like both the Euro. and the GFS are hinting towards a powerful coastal Storm for Tuesday-Thursday next week. (on the East Coast). Do you think that will happen?

  2. Monty says:

    Actually Storm…Mikes WX Page is how I found your site. I used his site for graphics until I found your site. He’s got quite a following and is a weather buff…not an expert like you. So…imagine the following you could get…not to mention sponsors. LT is right…you are well known and very respected by all of us. Time to get bigger Senior Chief.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Andy is right. Mikes Weather Page (sure you’ve heard of him…out of TPA) has exploded with sponsors over past couple of years. You’ve got a great product…just need to get good marketing to get this rolling Senior Chief!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks so much Storm. Boy your “plate” is really full! So much going on. I know I hate moving, best of luck with that. Just continue to let us know what’s going on and whats going on with your subscription site.

  5. avb3 says:

    Mr Walsh,

    I understand and emphasis why you are contemplating a subscription based site.

    My strong suspicion is that you will get minimal uptake on that, especially at 10/month. I say this from my past expertise bring involved with an award winning business incubator, and seeing numerous business ideas that did not gain traction. Once people get things for free, only a small percentile will pay for the same.

    May I suggest a better model is to obtain both sponsorships and advertising. Your information is very specific, and those entities that can benefit from that are your midst likely contributors.

    Have you fine any sort of analysis as to who your subscribers are? Knowing that information would allow you to develop a plan to obtain sponsorships or advertisers.

    If you have any interest in pursuing my suggestion, I am willing to be of some assistance in formulating a plan to proceed.

    I am a snowbird from Alberta, spending six months at my condo in New Port Richey just up the road from you. I will be going back early May.

    Andy von Busse On Mar 19, 2014 12:13 PM, “WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE

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