Good morning all!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over a good portion of the Florida Peninsula, concentrating mainly on PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA…
The biggest threat should be damaging straight line severe thunderstorm gusts. Based on my analysis of the most recent Upper Air Soundings from around the risk area, and data from F5 Severe Weather Software (GFS and NAM – WRF models), storms should remain pretty much linear in form (squall line type), however BRN and SRH indices indicate some embedded supercells may be probable Sounding and forecast soundings indicate SBCAPE values approaching 1000 – 1200 j/kg, and MLCAPE values of near 500-750 j/kg…Based on this, isolated tornadoes within any supercells cannot be ruled out. The following map outlines where the BEST probability of such storms may occur, and would be a threat from 11:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. EDT.
Residents within this risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local news channels for ANY local NWS Severe Weather Statements.
ALL graphics are linked, and should be used for up to date information. I will on and off, monitoring this situation today. Yes, I am within the outlined area.
Have a safe and blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)