SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEST CENTRAL / SW FL….FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 17, 2014…ISSUED 10:35 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good morning all!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over a good portion of the Florida Peninsula, concentrating mainly on PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

The biggest threat should be damaging straight line severe thunderstorm gusts.  Based on my analysis of the most recent Upper Air Soundings from around the risk area, and data from F5 Severe Weather Software (GFS and NAM – WRF models), storms should remain pretty much linear in form (squall line type), however BRN and SRH indices indicate some embedded supercells may be probable  Sounding and forecast soundings indicate SBCAPE values approaching 1000 – 1200 j/kg, and MLCAPE values of near 500-750 j/kg…Based on this, isolated tornadoes within any supercells cannot be ruled out.  The following map outlines where the BEST probability of such storms may occur, and would be a threat from 11:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. EDT.
day1otlk_1300 (2)

Residents within this risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local news channels for ANY local NWS Severe Weather Statements.

ALL graphics are linked, and should be used for up to date information.  I will on and off, monitoring this situation today.  Yes, I am within the outlined area.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS WATCH, WARNING, AND HAZARD DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR STATE)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

Have a safe and blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEST CENTRAL / SW FL….FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 17, 2014…ISSUED 10:35 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    I hope you, “battened down the hatches” Storm, looks pretty rough down there today!

  2. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm, I will try to scrape up a few bucks to subscribe. I might just pay for an annual vs monthly.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. You and Elliot stay safe down there!!

  4. uglyemt says:

    Hey Storm. Yes still in the cross hairs I see. I have my eye to the sky today. So far a lot of low level inflow winds heading into the Gulf. Upper levels moving towards us looks like mid maybe but low level definitely heading away. Estimating 30 to 45 winds above the surface based on cloud movement and rough calculations. Ground level a nice 20 breeze gusting to maybe 30. No instruments with me, didn’t think I would need them this vacation LOL.
    LIke I posted earlier will be updating to Twitter and Facebook (@Jude Ravo) so hopefully I can grab some good shots and video. Will keep posted as conditions change here at the Gulf.
    Will start #Gulfsvrwx for folks to check out.

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