UPDATE CONCERNING THIS CURRENT SITE: Doing some research yesterday, I am going to attempt in setting up a regular website, vice a blog for the purposes of paid subscriptions. IF I can get everything in order, I will be informing all of you on this site, and try to give you as much heads up as I can. Again, the more subscribers, the lower the monthly subscription fee.
Thank you ALL, for your understanding in this matter.
In the meantime, I have just gotten the chance to look at things, and severe weather is already occurring.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms…ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA…
WRN U.S. POSITIVE-TILT RIDGE WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH MON AS DOWNSTREAM SPLIT-FLOW TROUGH COMPLEX NOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND OZARKS EVOLVES INTO A SINGLE…POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. THE LATTER EVOLUTION WILL INCLUDE THE ENE MOVEMENT AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER AR…THE WEAKENING AND NE MOVEMENT OF UPR DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE…AND THE CONTINUED SSE ADVANCE OF JET STREAK NOW OVER SW KS/WRN OK INTO S TX.
SFC LOW ATTM OVER ERN AR…ASSOCIATED WITH AR UPR IMPULSE…SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E INTO MS/AL LATER TODAY AND EARLY MON…WITH A NEW SFC WAVE POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT/BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY EXTENDING E ACROSS GA TO THE CAROLINA CST. FARTHER S…A SECONDARY SFC WAVE ALSO MAY FORM LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER THE N CNTRL GULF OR MEXICO…IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVERTAKING LAGGING COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE NRN AND WRN GULF.
…CNTRL/ERN GULF CST INTO GA/SC TODAY/TNGT…
ONGOING…NE-SE PRE-COLD FRONTAL SQLN NOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E AT ABOUT 35 KTS TODAY…IN TANDEM WITH ASSOCIATED 40-50 SWLY LLJ. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF AR UPR IMPULSE. BUT SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SQLN /PROVIDED BY LLJ/…COUPLED WITH MODEST SFC HEATING…STRONG /50 KT/ 700-500 MB WSWLY FLOW…AND THE EXISTING DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED LEWPS AND POSSIBLY TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
THE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GA AND NRN FL CSTL PLN BY EARLY TNGT. GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OUTPACED ANY SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN…THE RISK FOR SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER APPEARS LOW…ALTHOUGH ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR.
…CNTRL-NRN MS/AL THIS AFTN/EVE…
MODEST SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS AND AL TODAY…IN ZONE OF RESIDUALLY MOIST AIR ALONG AND S OF WEAK W-E ORIENTED FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION. IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY COOL…LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SERN FRINGE OF WEAKENING UPR IMPULSE…AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM AR…SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH S TX UPR IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. BUT GIVEN AT LEAST A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF POTENTIAL SFC HEATING…AND FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELD…A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DMGG WIND MAY OCCUR…ESPECIALLY IN AL. ..
Please click on the maps and displays, as they are linked for real time information updates.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for a good portion of the Florida Peninsula in the current Day 2 Convective Outlook.
Based on my preliminary analysis of various Severe Weather Parameter values, from F5 Severe Weather Software, using the GFS and NAM – WRF output, the best probability for Severe Weather lies within the risk area, within the red outlined area. Parameters ATTM indicate any thunderstorm activity may be most likely squall line type in nature, vice supercells. I will perform another analysis in the morning, to include the 12Z upper Air Soundings from around the risk area, and will have an update as well.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)