SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY…MAR. 16, 2014…ISSUED 2:40 P.M. EST…PHFC

UPDATE CONCERNING THIS CURRENT SITE:  Doing some research yesterday, I am going to attempt in setting up a regular website, vice a blog for the purposes of paid subscriptions.  IF I can get everything in order, I will be informing all of you on this site, and try to give you as much heads up as I can.  Again, the more subscribers, the lower the monthly subscription fee.

Thank you ALL, for your understanding in this matter.

In the meantime, I have just gotten the chance to look at things, and severe weather is already occurring.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms…ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DISPLAY

…SYNOPSIS…

WRN U.S. POSITIVE-TILT RIDGE WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH MON AS DOWNSTREAM SPLIT-FLOW TROUGH COMPLEX NOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND OZARKS EVOLVES INTO A SINGLE…POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. THE LATTER EVOLUTION WILL INCLUDE THE ENE MOVEMENT AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER AR…THE WEAKENING AND NE MOVEMENT OF UPR DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE…AND THE CONTINUED SSE ADVANCE OF JET STREAK NOW OVER SW KS/WRN OK INTO S TX.

 

SFC LOW ATTM OVER ERN AR…ASSOCIATED WITH AR UPR IMPULSE…SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E INTO MS/AL LATER TODAY AND EARLY MON…WITH A NEW SFC WAVE POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT/BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY EXTENDING E ACROSS GA TO THE CAROLINA CST. FARTHER S…A SECONDARY SFC WAVE ALSO MAY FORM LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER THE N CNTRL GULF OR MEXICO…IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVERTAKING LAGGING COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE NRN AND WRN GULF.

 

 

…CNTRL/ERN GULF CST INTO GA/SC TODAY/TNGT…

ONGOING…NE-SE PRE-COLD FRONTAL SQLN NOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E AT ABOUT 35 KTS TODAY…IN TANDEM WITH ASSOCIATED 40-50 SWLY LLJ. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF AR UPR IMPULSE. BUT SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SQLN /PROVIDED BY LLJ/…COUPLED WITH MODEST SFC HEATING…STRONG /50 KT/ 700-500 MB WSWLY FLOW…AND THE EXISTING DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED LEWPS AND POSSIBLY TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

 

THE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GA AND NRN FL CSTL PLN BY EARLY TNGT. GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OUTPACED ANY SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN…THE RISK FOR SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER APPEARS LOW…ALTHOUGH ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR.

 

…CNTRL-NRN MS/AL THIS AFTN/EVE…

MODEST SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS AND AL TODAY…IN ZONE OF RESIDUALLY MOIST AIR ALONG AND S OF WEAK W-E ORIENTED FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION. IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY COOL…LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SERN FRINGE OF WEAKENING UPR IMPULSE…AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM AR…SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH S TX UPR IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. BUT GIVEN AT LEAST A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF POTENTIAL SFC HEATING…AND FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELD…A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DMGG WIND MAY OCCUR…ESPECIALLY IN AL. ..

CORFIDI/BUNTING.. 03/16/2014

 

 

Please click on the maps and displays, as they are linked for real time information updates.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS WATCH, WARNING, AND HAZARD MAP (CLICK ON YOUR STATE)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for a good portion of the Florida Peninsula in the current Day 2 Convective Outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on my preliminary analysis of various Severe Weather Parameter values, from F5 Severe Weather Software, using the GFS and NAM – WRF output, the best probability for Severe Weather lies within the risk area, within the red outlined area.  Parameters ATTM indicate any thunderstorm activity may be most likely squall line type in nature, vice supercells.  I will perform another analysis in the morning, to include the 12Z upper Air Soundings from around the risk area, and will have an update as well.
BEST SEVERE day2otlk_1730 (1)

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY…MAR. 16, 2014…ISSUED 2:40 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. uglyemt says:

    Hey Storm. Hey everyone.
    I’m in for the new website.
    I’m down here in Fl and smack in the center of today’s severe area. Will be updating to Twitter and Facebook (@ jude ravo) as the day goes on. Hopefully I get some good shots. Doesn’t look like I need to chase this one. Looks to be coming to me.
    Talk to you all later.

  2. dellamom says:

    thanks for everything Storm. I’m in when you get it set up. We had lots of sthunderstorms here yesterday, but didn’t get a rainfall reading. It was a damp but happy St. Paddy’s day weekend here and we finished it up with a picnic at City Park in intermittent light drizzle.

  3. Dan Rutman says:

    Let me know when you decide on a monthly cost, your expertise is invaluable. I am a research director at Lamar Univ (Beaumont,TX), I do Electron microscopy and X ray diffraction.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like you guys could get popped in TPA…stay safe. No reports of damage in yesterdays severe wx in Tx…pretty much tame stuff. Your own site is definitely the way to go. It might be a little pricier but you have complete control over it…will come in handy as you grow.

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