PRELIMINARY…SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…MAR. 14, 2014…ISSUED 7:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening everyone!

To start, I had to wind up quitting the job I just got…not worth what little bit of money they we’re willing to pay…constantly fatigued.  Plus, other things occurred as far as the way the job is run…let’s just say it’s a “clusterf_ _ _ _.

After some debate as far as a paid subscribe site, I’ve based a price for subscription to the site at $10.00 per month.  IF I have enough folks subscribe, I may be able to go lower on the price.  However, if enough of you fine folks who visit and really rely on me for my hurricane and severe weather forecasts are able to subscribe, this will be my full – time employment..daily.  I should be able to be on site no later than 9:00 a.m., and will run it until around 5:00 – 6:00 p.m. (schedule will depend on whether or not we have anything going on, how much is going on, and, will also have to work around any family crises, and family and self medical appointments).  I will pretty much then be at my desk all day, and checking on situations every 2 – 3 hours.  During Hurricane Season, this will allow me to post a morning and late afternoon, to evening synopsis.  I will also add my cell phone number as my business number, so you may call me ANYTIME within the office operating hours.  As I have said before, I REALLY hate to do this, but if I don’t do something, I will go under, and won’t be able to forecast at all.

Please let me know if $10.00 / month is reasonable for all of you.  I still have to work on getting it all setup, and will send out messages as to where it stands, and when it will switch.  I do not intend to have different prices for different portions of the page…I feel, if you’re going to be “purchasing” the site monthly, I want you to be able to access ALL the information.  I will also be cleaning up the toolbox of links that no longer work, as well as adding new links you may be interested in.  With that said:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NERN QUARTER OF TX AND VICINITY…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
VALID 151200Z – 161200Z …

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NERN QUARTER OF TX AND VICINITY… …SYNOPSIS… WITHIN AN UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER ERN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT NERN CONUS…A SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD OUT OF ERN NM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK.

VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH…AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EVENTUALLY INTERACTS/COALESCES WITH THE SRN STREAM FEATURE. WITH THIS INTERACTION/PHASING BEING HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS…ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS — AND FRONTAL EVOLUTION/ADVANCE — IS ALSO NOT WELL HANDLED. OVERALL HOWEVER…WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND A FRONTAL ADVANCE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION THROUGH A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR…RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS APPARENT ACROSS THIS REGION.

…NERN QUARTER OF TX AND VICINITY… AFOREMENTIONED/SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS EMERGING ON DAY 2 COMPLICATE ATTEMPTS TO ASCERTAIN DETAILS OF THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION.
STILL…BROAD INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE E TX VICINITY ON SATURDAY.

ATTM…IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND ADJACENT NWRN TX…AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. HERE THOUGH…COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE AND MODEST SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE RISK…AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE DAY.

FARTHER SE INTO TX…STRONGER SHEAR — ENHANCED BY A 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM — IS PROGGED…BUT A WARM LEVEL BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT BOTH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EVENTUALLY HOWEVER…MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND THE EWD ADVANCE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD — AND SOMEWHAT MORE INTENSE — CONVECTION…SPREADING OUT OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE VEERING/INCREASING OF THE FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT…AMPLE CAPE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS WOULD SUGGEST A RISK FOR EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS — CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

LATER — DEPENDING UPON ACTUAL DEGREE OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD FRONT…A LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND COULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT…SPREADING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

FINALLY — DEPENDING AGAIN UPON SYSTEM EVOLUTION WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME…ISOLATED SEVERE RISK COULD EVOLVE AS FAR E AS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION…AS A LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THIS REGION LATE. AS SLY FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE NWD…AMPLE DESTABILIZATION MAY ENSUE…SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION — WITHIN A BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FEATURING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

Based on my analysis of the most recent Severe Weather forecast parameters from both the GFS and NAM – WRF models, ATTM…the greatest potential for this severe weather will be within the risk area, however both models at the moment are showing the greatest chance somewhat further toward the south, and west within and outside of the SLIGHT risk area…and is depicted on the following map:
day2otlk_1730

Given a slight inversion from 850 mb – 700 mb (the slight warming mentioned in the SPC Outlook Text),  should limit Surface Based Convection Development, and intensity.

These parameters of course, will most likely change by tomorrow morning / afternoon, so I will be analyzing soundings from 12Z around the risk area, and F5 Data Severe Weather Software, and should have an update in the a.m.   The most likely time frame for this weather to occur, is around 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. CDT.

Have a blessed evening!

 T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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20 Responses to PRELIMINARY…SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…MAR. 14, 2014…ISSUED 7:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. JeanetteH. says:

    Count me in! You give a clear update on WHY you think as you do and that is very helpful to those of us who have to plan around the weather. Especially, since weather doesnt always cooperate with forecasts and you freely admit that. I admire your honesty and your knowledge. Keep me posted on how to subscribe when you get it figured out. From someone who has to yell for her son in law on all things computer…..I feel for you getting things going.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I will try to join up. –As far as the set up for your new site, what about the guy who helped you initially when you set up this site? Maybe he can help you get going. I would send you money by good old mail, I don’t like to use the internet to send money. So I guess you would in some way open your site to me. I don’t know the mechanics of that.

    • LT…I just emailed him…he has no idea. As far as getting you access if you sent payments by mail, I’m sure there would have to be someway to allow access to you by your user name and password. I’m working on it, and will see if all of this can get worked out.

  3. ksb927 says:

    Count me in… I’m on the ground, on the water just North of you…so you are invaluable during Hurricane Season. You beat the other forecasts everytime. Your interpretations of the science and info everyone gets generally far exceeds accuracy of the ‘official’ agencies. Retired here too, but money better spent here than other places in my particular situation. I don’t often enough thank you for your work, so will do so now. Thank-you! Karen McGowan 🙂

  4. Megaboat says:

    I, for one, will gladly give ten dollars for your accurate forecasts on a daily basis. Good Luck !

  5. Roger Kellett says:

    I’m in!

  6. Monty says:

    Sign me up Senior Chief. You equal…if not out do NHC/SPC. I rely heavily on your forecasts. I’m forwarding this to all the gang. Maybe I can get a few to sign up. Best of luck Storm…sorry to hear about a lame duck job…sucks out there right now.

    • Trying to figure out how to get it all set up first.

      • Monty says:

        If there is anything I can do to help…don’t hesitate to ask.

        • I don’t understand how to set this up! I downloaded the plug in crap, and can’t find anything.

          I got through step 2…but can’t get step 3.

          1.) Download the latest version of the plugin.
          2.) Unzip the downloaded file to your computer.
          3.) Upload the /paid-memberships-pro/ directory to the /wp-content/plugins/ directory of your site.
          4.) Activate the plugin through the ‘Plugins’ menu in WordPress.

          I have no frigging clue how to get to my wp-content/plugins/ directory. Don’t even know if I have one

          • Monty says:

            Hey Storm…wordpress will have tech support on this. Not sure what operating system you’re using. Possibly upgrade or download latest service pack??

          • Monty says:

            Just “brain”storming Chief. Do you use WinZip? Sites constantly update/upgrade content…could be a comp compatibility issue…or something as simple as a wrong password?? Wow…you have an account…this should be very simple. I have tech support account…can possibly ask them? LT had best advice but guy has no idea. Another possibility…start over. All of your software accounts should be transferable. Just use a website you set up yourself via a payable account. Not sure on how that would work…could be on a voluntary basis…pretty risky…but possible by using a username/password entry. Of course…all of this costs money…something that’s at a premium right now. I know some comp geeks…will ask around…maybe will dig up a gold nugget or two. Take care my friend.

  7. Sorry Storm ! Some of us are not in a position to meet that requirement! If things turn upward in the next few months, We may want to return, but some of us who are 20 Yrs. past retirement have many more things to consider! Thanks for what you have done for us! We will continue to tune in and if things start looking up in these questionable times we’ll be back!

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