2014 HURRICANE SEASON…PRE SEASON FORECAST…MAR. 05, 2014…ISSUED 5:25 P.M. EST..PHFC

Good day everyone!

Just wanted to start with informing you as to what is happening with my job I just got hired for, and future forecasting.  My employment is as a driver for PTI…Professional Transport Inc.  in which we pull 12 hour shifts, waiting for calls from dispatch to go on the road.  We transport CSX Train Crews from their hotel to their train, and vice versa.  So, most of the time now, I am catching up on sleep.  With a 5 day work week, it doesn’t leave much time to catch up on forecasting.  So the bottom line is…I don’t know at this moment how this is going to work out for hurricane season…and I hate to say that…but the ONLY way I could put in full time again, is if I were able to not have to work…which would require me to change my site to a paid subscription site…and I know that would not be fair to those who are struggling as I am.  So, with that said, I am posting my Pre Hurricane Season Forecast for the 2014 Hurricane Season.

I have analyzed a few parameters and have come up with some analog years, based right now on ONI comparisons of what Global Climate Models are predicting as far as ENSO conditions for the upcoming season.  Now, totals will be open to change as conditions change between now and June 01 2014, and a revised forecast will be posted at the beginning of the season, as we have seen El Nino was projected for about mid season last year, in accordance with the Climate Model consensus…which in fact, busted.  I have chosen to not use the formula I worked out and have used over the past 3 years, as we saw what quick changes occurred in the SSTA’s in the MDR in 2013, and the unprecedented amount of dry air due to an unexpected stronger than average NAO.

Based on the current ONI, and the forecast values for ENSO conditions beginning mid to late summer, I chose the following years as Analogs, which if ENSO conditions pan out as forecast, show the trend we may expect and number of storms for those years:

1951: 10-8-5
2002: 12-4-2
2006: 10-5-2
2009: 9-3-2

Based on the “average” of these analogs, and the average of these added to the long term average, my pre season forecast is as follows:

TOTAL STORMS: 10 – 11
HURRICANES: 4 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2 – 3

OCEANIC NINO INDEX VALUES
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

The following is the current ENSO forecast update from the Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM), Australia.

CLIMATE MODELS UPDATED FORECAST

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has tanked into the negative, indicating a strong westerly wind burst in the western Pacific, which will most likely send a Kelvin Wave of warmer water in the sub-surface eastward, which could very well increase the Nino 3.4 region SSTA’s.

SOI

SUB SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

The IOD (Indian Ocean DiPole) is forecast to be about the same as this past season.  Albeit my research revealed a negative IOD does not interrupt the West African Monsoon Circulation, it does hinder the Indian Monsoon, and convection over East Africa, which allows for a reduction in the number of tropical waves over Africa, as well as the intensity.

IOD FORECAST

Another factor in my thinking of an “average” season, to possibly slightly below average season taking hold is, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been in the positive range over the past few months…this has led to a significant cooling of the MDR SST anomalies.

GFS NAO FORECAST

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA)

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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15 Responses to 2014 HURRICANE SEASON…PRE SEASON FORECAST…MAR. 05, 2014…ISSUED 5:25 P.M. EST..PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Thanks for all you do, Storm. Let me know if you decide to go the subscription route – I guess that will depend on how many people can confirm – and I am pretty certain I will be able to subscribe. I do rely on you for peace of mind and a subscription would be way cheaper than psychotherapy. 🙂 Guys (particularly LT), do you know what the weather in New York City is supposed to be this weekend? My nephew and his partner are visiting us down here for a month and have planned to fly up to NYC for this coming weekend, but they heard there might be snow(?). They have theater tickets (Wicked, I think) and would hate to have to cancel or change nights because they might not be able to get tickets for another night. Thanks in advance, and thanks and prayers to Storm. Congratulations on the job, even though I suspect you’d rather be forecasting.

    • originallt says:

      Hi Dellamom. The forecast is: Possible showers Friday night, Then clearing and mild Saturday, highs 47-52F–so Sat. is good. Sunday , partly cloudy and getting colder, highs 35-40F , with the slight chance of snow flurries or very light snow, but nothing big at the moment. I will check back into Storm’s blog and tell you if anything changes. So, all in all, looks pretty good now.

      • dellamom says:

        thanks, LT. They flew out this morning, and as long as they don’t get snowed in, everything else is OK. They are in from New Zealand for just shy of a month and his mom would hate to lose an extra day of visiting time due to weather delays.

  2. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, just read your blog, This past 12days or so has been hectic for me what with coming home from my trip and having the funeral of my Step-Mom, and dealing with family stuff–and starting my taxes. Best of luck with the new job, hope that money comes “driving in” for you! You do what you have to, as we all have said, family comes first.I know, if you have time and get into some sort of routine, and there is a “storm” brewing or heading towards the U.S., you’ll try to come on and advise us. All the best!–LT

  3. pamela says:

    Wow I hope you are successful in your new job, but boy will you be missed. I pay for other forecast and would gladly pay for yours if you should do so. Thank you for all you do

  4. Monty says:

    Congrats on your job Storm. I’m with Capt Bruce…let me know how much. I really depend on your tropical forecasts. On the other end…with a $1500 a month alimony payment…it might be a little hard to pull off…we’ll see. Thanks Senior Chief!!

  5. Capt Bruce (ret.) says:

    ps – Keep me in the loop regarding this becoming a paid subscription site. If that’s the direction you take, I would like the info, so I can consider becoming one of your subscribers. Agreed, I am squeezing pennies and probably couldn’t afford it, but I would like the opportunity to figure out if I could crunch the numbers. We’re neighbors, and you have been my primary source for hurricane forecasts for a number of years. Thanks for all you do !
    Bruce in Cape Coral

  6. Capt Bruce (ret.) says:

    Hello Chief ! Glad to hear about the fulltime position. You need to take care of your personal and family needs first, so don’t worry about the unpaid subscribers like me. I’m sure things will come together once the season approaches. Thanks for all your help in past seasons, and God Bless ! Bruce in Cape Coral

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