Good day everyone!
Just wanted to start with informing you as to what is happening with my job I just got hired for, and future forecasting. My employment is as a driver for PTI…Professional Transport Inc. in which we pull 12 hour shifts, waiting for calls from dispatch to go on the road. We transport CSX Train Crews from their hotel to their train, and vice versa. So, most of the time now, I am catching up on sleep. With a 5 day work week, it doesn’t leave much time to catch up on forecasting. So the bottom line is…I don’t know at this moment how this is going to work out for hurricane season…and I hate to say that…but the ONLY way I could put in full time again, is if I were able to not have to work…which would require me to change my site to a paid subscription site…and I know that would not be fair to those who are struggling as I am. So, with that said, I am posting my Pre Hurricane Season Forecast for the 2014 Hurricane Season.
I have analyzed a few parameters and have come up with some analog years, based right now on ONI comparisons of what Global Climate Models are predicting as far as ENSO conditions for the upcoming season. Now, totals will be open to change as conditions change between now and June 01 2014, and a revised forecast will be posted at the beginning of the season, as we have seen El Nino was projected for about mid season last year, in accordance with the Climate Model consensus…which in fact, busted. I have chosen to not use the formula I worked out and have used over the past 3 years, as we saw what quick changes occurred in the SSTA’s in the MDR in 2013, and the unprecedented amount of dry air due to an unexpected stronger than average NAO.
Based on the current ONI, and the forecast values for ENSO conditions beginning mid to late summer, I chose the following years as Analogs, which if ENSO conditions pan out as forecast, show the trend we may expect and number of storms for those years:
Based on the “average” of these analogs, and the average of these added to the long term average, my pre season forecast is as follows:
TOTAL STORMS: 10 – 11
HURRICANES: 4 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2 – 3
OCEANIC NINO INDEX VALUES
The following is the current ENSO forecast update from the Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM), Australia.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has tanked into the negative, indicating a strong westerly wind burst in the western Pacific, which will most likely send a Kelvin Wave of warmer water in the sub-surface eastward, which could very well increase the Nino 3.4 region SSTA’s.
The IOD (Indian Ocean DiPole) is forecast to be about the same as this past season. Albeit my research revealed a negative IOD does not interrupt the West African Monsoon Circulation, it does hinder the Indian Monsoon, and convection over East Africa, which allows for a reduction in the number of tropical waves over Africa, as well as the intensity.
Another factor in my thinking of an “average” season, to possibly slightly below average season taking hold is, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been in the positive range over the past few months…this has led to a significant cooling of the MDR SST anomalies.
CURRENT OPERATIONAL SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA)
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)