Good morning everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center, Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for:
ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY…
Earlier analysis this morning of data output of the GFS and NAM – WRF models, utilizing F5 DATA Severe Weather Software indicates the main threat today should remain strong winds and and hail, associated with any of the severe thunderstorms. Various indices indicate that, IAW with the current SPC text outlook, any severe storms should be in a linear mode (squall line), and for the most part, early on, should be elevated. As daytime heating occurs, some supercells could become embedded within the line, however indices indicate that instability will be greater than shear today, allowing for some suppression of supercell activity overall. In simpler terms…the atmosphere should favor more squall line activity vice supercell activity…based on the current forecast values. Currently, information suggests the highest prob. of severe thunderstorms to occur between 11:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. CST over the portions of TX outlined in red, and over the portions of LA 2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. CST outlined in pink. Isolated tornadoes could occur with embedded supercells.
Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and Local NWS statements for watches and warnings.
ALL maps and graphics are linked…please click on them for real time updates.
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)