SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 02, 2014…ISSUED 8:05 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good morning everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center, Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for:
ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Earlier analysis this morning of data output of the GFS and NAM – WRF models, utilizing F5 DATA Severe Weather Software indicates the main threat today should remain strong winds and and hail, associated with any of the severe thunderstorms.  Various indices indicate that, IAW with the current SPC text outlook, any severe storms should be in a linear mode (squall line), and for the most part, early on, should be elevated.  As daytime heating occurs, some supercells could become embedded within the line, however indices indicate that instability will be greater than shear today, allowing for some suppression of supercell activity overall.  In simpler terms…the atmosphere should favor more squall line activity vice supercell activity…based on the current forecast values.  Currently, information suggests the highest prob. of severe thunderstorms to occur between 11:00 a.m. –  2:00 p.m. CST over the portions of TX outlined in red, and over the portions of LA 2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. CST outlined in pink.  Isolated tornadoes could occur with embedded supercells.
day1otlk_1200

Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and Local NWS statements for watches and warnings.

ALL maps and graphics are linked…please click on them for real time updates.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS WATCH, WARNING, AND HAZARD DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP…TEXAS

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP…LOUISIANA

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 02, 2014…ISSUED 8:05 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…passing along to gang in IAH/MSY. HA…took a drive from Littleton…(where I live)…Temp at 7F…Eleven 5700FT. Drove 10 miles into foothills…34F at 7500FT. I hate Arctic Fronts!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s